Prudent monetary move set to ease in H2
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The Chinese government's prudent monetary stance may be eased in the second half of the year when inflationary pressure is expected to cool, said a chief economist of a brokerage.
Li Xunlei of Guotai Junan Securities Co expects policy makers to unveil tightening measures in the first six months of the year to fight inflation and then revert to a normal stance in the second half.
"China's prudent monetary policy may be relaxed in as early as the second half when inflationary pressure eases and the overall economic growth moderates," Li wrote in a column for the Wall Street Journal Chinese edition yesterday.
Li expected the People's Bank of China to announce one more interest rate increase in the first six months after the central bank made the long-anticipated rate hike on Tuesday - the last day of the week-long Spring Festival holiday.
Li said the effects of the current tightening measures, including seven reserve requirement ratio hikes and three interest rate increases since October, will be seen in the second half when policy makers are expected to revert to a normal stance after prices stabilize.
China's Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 4.6 percent from a year earlier in December. It hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November.
Economists said the CPI may rebound to a new high in January when food prices surged amid bad weather and surging consumer demand ahead of the Spring Festival holiday.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the inflation data for January next Tuesday.
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