The growth of the nation's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to further slow down in February, officials and economists said Tuesday while cautioning consumer prices are likely to rebound, which may force the central bank to stick to its course of monetary tightening.

CPI, a major gauge of inflation, is likely to dip lower than that in January, Zhang Ping, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said Tuesday, without offering a specific figure.

Consumer price gains may have cooled to 4.6 percent in February from 4.9 percent in January, Bank of Communications said in a forecast report released Tuesday.

"However, we believe price pressure in the first half of the year will continue to build as factors which drive the prices up are profuse," the report said, citing factors such as the drought in northern China, a labor shortage after the new year holiday and possible hikes in crude prices due to unrest in the Middle East and northern Africa.

CPI accelerated to 4.9 percent in January from 4.6 percent in December, slightly below the 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November.

The National Bureau of Statistics based January data on a revised calculation of the CPI basket. The weighting on food was reduced, while the weighting on housing was increased.

In a note e-mailed to the Global Times Tuesday, Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, stuck to his forecast of 4.8 percent CPI in February.

He attributed the possibly softening of inflation in February to a rapid post-Chinese New Year decline in vegetable prices and the upcoming National People's Congress meeting, which could bring some new hope.

But he cautioned against risks of higher inflation bolstered by surging oil prices.

"There might be a rebound to above 5.0 percent again in March, but we believe CPI inflation will likely peak at a level no higher than 5.5 percent," he said in the note.

However, Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist with Shanghai-based Industrial Bank, expected CPI to rise to 4.7 percent in February and peak in the third quarter at around 6 percent.

February economic data including figures for inflation are scheduled to be released next Friday.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation's top economic planner, said earlier that the country had set a target of a 4 percent CPI rise for this year, but was unable to keep inflation down.

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