Economic output in the BRIC countries will exceed that of the United States by 2015, five years earlier than a forecast made in February, a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted yesterday.
That forecast was made by Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, who coined the phrase BRIC to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001.
The CASS report said the economic output in the BRIC countries will account for 22 percent of the world's total in 2015, and contribute to over one third of global growth.
China and India will remain the two star performers. China may eclipse the US to become the world's biggest economy by 2020. Its gross domestic product rose 10.3 percent annually to 39.79 trillion yuan (US$6.03 trillion) in 2010, surpassing Japan as the world's second-largest economy. By 2020 India will jump to fifth spot, the report said.
The forecast is based on a steady expansion of emerging markets in the past 10 years, which has seen growth average 6 percent, higher than 2.6 percent in developed countries.
The report said over US$1.1 trillion in foreign funds will flow to emerging markets this year. Governments face challenges on how to make good use of the funds, separate them from speculative money and control inflationary pressures, according to the report.