WB: China's 2011 export growth will fall to 12.4%

By Yan Pei
0 CommentsPrint E-mail China.org.cn, May 3, 2011
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WB: China's 2011 export growth will fall to 12.4%


China will no longer depend so much on trade surplus to support its economic growth, according to a report by the World Bank.

The World Bank predicted China's average trade surplus in 2011 and 2012 to stand at about US$200 billion, 2.7 percent of the country's GDP and only 0.2 percentage point of its projected GDP growth. In 2010, the trade surplus accounted for 0.8 percentage point of China's economic growth, while the number was about 2.4 percentage points around 2005.

According to the report, China's exports will grow by 12.4 percent in 2011, which is only about half the country's export growth rate before the financial crisis broke out in 2009.

"With export volumes slowing more rapidly than import volumes, the contribution of net trade to real GDP growth will decline," said the World Bank in its latest China Quarterly Update report.

The less diminished role of trade in supporting China's economic growth is partly because of slack demand, as the rest of the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis, said Louis Kuijs, a Beijing-based senior economist of the World Bank.

The third round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held from May 9 and 10 in Washington D.C. China's policies on currency exchange rate will no doubt be a key focus of the dialogue.

Analysts believe that the World Bank's study may make it even harder for the U.S. to pressure China to further appreciate the yuan, especially after China posted a small trade deficit in the first quarter.






5 月9日,中美战略与经济对话将在华盛顿召开,中国的汇率政策无疑会成为焦点。


China's business press carried the story above on Tuesday. China.org.cn has not checked the stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.


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