China to continue prudent monetary policy

By Yang Xi
0 CommentsPrint E-mail China.org.cn, May 10, 2011
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China to continue prudent monetary policy 中国将继续实行稳健性货币政策

 

China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, a People’s Bank of China (PBoC) official told China Business News on Tuesday.

Analysts predict the PBoC will not raise the deposit reserve ratio or interest rates again if the consumer price index (CPI) and housing prices maintain steady or drop continuously for three consecutive months.

PBoC has raised interest rates, exchange rates and the deposit reserve ratio several times this year in an attempt to tighten money supply and fight inflationary pressures.

The monetary policy has proven to be effective. China's CPI, a key gauge of inflation, has become relatively stable, and real estate prices have not seen sharp increases. New loans issued from January to April this year dropped 10 percent over the same period last year.

Shao Yu, chief analyst at Beijing-based Hongyuan Securities, warned about the decline in sales under the current monetary policy.

China's producer price index (PPI), a major measure of inflation at the wholesale level, will continue to rise, Shao said. It is expected to reach 8 percent in May, which will definitely have negative impact on asset prices, Shao added.


据《第一财经日报》报道,央行上海总部一位官员日前表示,中国下一个阶段将会继续稳健性货币政策。

分析人士认为,如果CPI或者房价连续3个月环比持平或下降,央行才有可能不再上调存款准备金和利率。

今年以来,央行几次提高汇率、利率、存款准备金率,以紧缩货币供应和管理通胀压力。


这些举措都已取得了初步的效果,物价指数环比相对开始稳定;房价虽然没有下降,但总体水平没有大幅度上涨。这些都是货币政策调控所取得的效果。今年1-4月新增加信贷规模比去年同期下降10%左右。

宏源证券首席分析师邵宇认为,目前的货币政策下,市场目前要警惕企业的产品销售已经在下降。

邵宇还表示,PPI会一直上升,5月份估计会接近8%,这势必对资产价格产生负面影响。

 


 

China's business press carried the story above on Tuesday. China.org.cn has not checked the stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.

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