Although China's growth has reached the goal set at the beginning of the year, 7.5 percent, and is growing the fastest out of all the global economies, there will be four uncertainties next year in maintaining the pace of growth, said Zhu Guangyao, vice finance minister at the annual meeting of the China Chamber of International Commerce (CCOIC) in Beijing on Dec. 11, 2013.

First is the uncertainty of U.S. economic policies. Since the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, the Fed passed several rounds of quantitative easing to cushion the impact of the global financial crisis. This unusual monetary policy has caused a rapidly expanding balance sheet and risks of asset bubbles.

As the dollar is a major reserve and trade settlement currency, US monetary policies have a huge spillover effect in the world economy. When Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the audience that the Fed may end its stimulus policy on May 19, the global market was sent into turmoil. Therefore, China must pay close attention to the Fed's policies, QE and the later tapering.

The U.S. fiscal policy is also uncertain. Two months ago, divergences between the Republican and the Democratic parties had forced the government to shut down for half a month. Although the two parties reached an agreement to postpone setting the debt ceiling until next February, it will still a big challenge to Obama administration and the global economy.

The second uncertainty is the state of the European economies, in the Eurozone in particular. European economies have been stuck in the mire of the sovereign debt crisis, which broke out in 2010 and the Eurozone was even on the brink of collapse. Although economies started to grow in the second half of this year, it will take a long time for them to reach pre-crisis levels. Huge debts have also put great pressure on the Eurozone, due to future financing costs.

As the best performer in the crisis, Germany is playing an important role in stabilizing economies in the region. It has also profited from exports, although it now faces a five percent to six percent imbalance of payments. Therefore, EU members have to face the challenge of structural reform, especially Germany.

The third uncertainty is among emerging economies. BRICS and other emerging economies have been the new engine of the global economy for a long time, with robust markets and strong export. But BRICS members like Brazil, India and South Africa as well as Turkey have suffered from a trade deficit this year. The direct trigger is capital outflow after the the Federal Reserve adjusted its monetary policy. A deeper cause is the imbalanced economic structures among the emerging economies.

Therefore, emerging countries face great challenges in economic policies. Besides, India, Brazil and Turkey will hold general elections in 2014, which increases the uncertainties of their economic and political policies.

The last uncertainty is the Japanese economy. The "Abenomics" implemented at the beginning of 2013 aims to stimulate Japan's deflated economy with easy monetary and fiscal policies and economic restructuring. The first two methods have worked, but the last one has not been launched yet. Abe expects that the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement negotiations with the U.S. will provide a solution to structural reform. But the negotiations are moving slowly at present, which means that the restructuring has a long way to go.

Abe's administration plans to raise the consumption tax from five to eight percent in 2014 to solve its long-term fiscal deficit. To avoid the economic slowdown caused by raising tax, it will launch another 5.5 trillion-yen stimulus package. Most of the world's economists do not believe that the Japanese economic policies are sustainable and workable. According to Standard Chartered Bank's outlook, Japan will grow less fast in real terms and the yen will weaken in 2014.

"The global trade growth in 2013 is only 2.5 percent. Even though economic growth will be 3.6 percent in 2014, we cannot be optimistic about trade." Zhu added.

He hopes that the Bali package which was achieved at the WTO's ninth ministerial meeting in Indonesia last Saturday will help the difficult negotiations make more breakthroughs.

He also observes that the recent multi-lateral trade negotiations, such as the TPP and TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), will change global trade rules and patterns. The new patterns and rules should be addressed through new thoughts and policies.

China has to follow the progress of these negotiations, while promoting trade negotiations that it is involved in, such as the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) and FTA talks with Japan and South Korea.

As the world's second largest economy and top trader, China should be focusing on how to develop its comparative advantages to make Chinese brands, not the manufacturing and design, powerful in world economy in next year.

Established in 1988, CCOIC promotes China's international economic and commercial interests by developing business cooperation and exchanges with foreign countries. More than 400 businessmen, officials and scholars from home and abroad attended the annual meeting on Wednesday.

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