Optimism over Chinese economy despite slowing growth

By Zhang Lulu
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, October 21, 2015
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The Chinese economy is still generating optimism despite having reported weak data this week.

The country posted a third quarter 6.9-percent GDP growth rate on Monday, the lowest quarterly performance since 2009. Some analysts and investors are concerned about the sustainability of the world's second largest economy, but that sentiment is not shared by all. For example, a conglomerate of former heads of states, incumbent policy makers and economists from emerging market countries don't support this sentiment.

The opening ceremony of the "Beijing Forum for Emerging Markets 2015" held in Beijing on Oct. 19. [Photo/China.org.cn]

During the "Beijing Forum for Emerging Markets 2015" held in Beijing from October 19 to 20, many participants have voiced their optimism about the Chinese economy.

In an interview with China.org.cn, Shigeo Katsu, the former regional vice president of the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank, said that the 6.9-percent growth rate is "not a bad thing," noting that the Chinese economy is still in the process of adjusting, namely, from an export-and-investment-based economy to a consumption-driven one, thus "lower growth is part and parcel of the transformation," he said.

China set a 7-percent growth target for the entire year. Asked if he thought the country can hit the target, Mr.Katsu gave an affirmative answer. "Even if you come relatively close to the target, it is already fabulous."

China recorded an unprecedented double-digit growth in the past three decades, but the deceleration in recent years has unnerved many countries who fear that China would not be the vital economic driver in the world it used to be. However, Bert Hofman, the World Bank's country director for China, Mongolia and Korea in the East Asia Pacific Region, argued that although China would not be able to register 10 percent growth as it did before, it "still contributes most to global growth."

He expected the country to grow at a 6 to 6.5 percent rate in the next five years, which he argued would still be an "enormous achievement."

China and the emerging market

Like China, many emerging market countries have seen slowdown in their growth, coupled with depreciating currencies, rising inflation and an outflow of capital.

The former heads of state attending the "Beijing Forum for Emerging Markets 2015" are aware of the inherent problems in the economy of their countries.

Raila Odinga, former Kenyan prime minister, observed that his country, the economic powerhouse in East Africa, is still prone to external shocks. The country's economic performance is affected by falling commodity prices, tepid demands from other economies, and uncertainties in the global financial system.

The country needs to "diversify" so as not to be "overly dependent on just one source," the former Prime Minister said.

Despite weaker growth in China, the world's largest developing country and emerging economy, other emerging market countries still see a likely and promising helping hand from China.

Fakhruddin Ahmed, the former prime minister of Bangladesh, suggested that China help the Southeastern Asian country by building infrastructure there, increasing foreign direct investment, and providing education and training to local people.

The suggestion was echoed by Raila Odinga, who believed that Kenya and China can have "complementary interests" in a cooperation where Kenya provides raw materials and China technological and financial support.

Like the upbeat outlook on the Chinese economy, participants at the forum also placed high hopes on the emerging market, dismissing the current turmoil as bumps on a fundamentally smooth road. They emphasized the fact that the emerging market constitutes 50 percent of the world's GDP and is likely to contribute two thirds of the world's economic growth by 2050.

"The rising of the emerging market signals an inevitable prospect," said Hu Biliang, dean of the Emerging Market Institute of Beijing Normal University, which co-hosted the forum. It seems the same can be said of the Chinese economy.

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