US balance sheet reduction unlikely to weigh on yuan
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E-mail Xinhua, September 23, 2017
As the United States takes a further step to end its loose monetary policy with a portfolio draw-down plan, for China the pressure from draining the dollar liquidity of its currency is set to be largely limited.
Many economists believe that given China's sound economic fundamentals and abundant foreign reserves, there is no need to worry about exchange rate volatility or massive capital outflows.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced this week that it would keep interest rates unchanged, but, as anticipated, also start to slowly unwind its huge 4.5-trillion-U.S. dollar balance sheet from October.
"Balance sheet reduction, like a rate hike, is a necessity for the Fed to normalize its monetary policy," said Wang Qing, analyst with Golden Credit Rating International.
The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to around 4.5 trillion U.S. dollars following three rounds of quantitative easing to withstand the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis.
However, the unwinding decision, which will directly withdraw monetary base from the market and tighten dollar liquidity, did not cause much of a market stir as it was largely expected.
Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stocks wavered in a narrow range Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 41.79 points (0.19 percent) to 22,412.59. The S&P 500 inched up 1.59 points (0.06 percent) to 2,508.24.
The U.S. dollar index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, increased 0.83 percent to 92.558 in late trading on Wednesday, but retreated to around 92 by Friday.
Meanwhile, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan weakened 197 basis points to 6.5867 against the U.S. dollar Thursday. On Friday, it strengthened 6 basis points back to 6.5861 against the greenback.
Zhao Qingming, chief economist with China Financial Futures Exchange, said the swift rise of the U.S. dollar was largely related to its previous falls.
After skidding to a two-year low earlier this month, the dollar index started to pick up strength in the past two weeks as market worries over geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula and Hurricane Irma eased.
Although the balance sheet reduction announcement was a strong support for the greenback rebound and seemed to put slight pressure on the yuan, in view of the global market the reaction of the yuan was moderate, Zhao said.
Since the beginning of this year, the yuan has appreciated by around 6 percent in cumulative terms against the dollar due to the weakening greenback and steady expansion of the Chinese economy.
China's GDP grew faster than expected in the first half of the year, up 6.9 percent from a year earlier. The growth accelerated from 6.7 percent in 2016, above the government's 2017 full-year target of around 6.5 percent.
With the Chinese economy continuing to stabilize, and the market expectation on investment returns of yuan assets improving, the exchange rate of the yuan is likely to maintain a steady trend for the rest of the year, Wang Qing said.
The dollar index, subject to the political uncertainties of the Trump presidency, might continue its downward trend. Therefore, the Fed balance sheet reduction will not bring any major external pressure to the yuan, according to Wang.
The Fed has raised interest rates twice this year, in March and June. Previously, the market expected the Fed might raise interest rate again in December.
"The Fed's monetary policy is only one of the factors that impact on the dollar's trend and international capital flows," Zhao said.
He expressed confidence that China's abundant foreign reserves and effective capital account management would help ride out external shocks and let the country remain independent in its monetary policy making.
China's forex reserves rose for the seventh month in a row to 3.092 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of August, as the yuan gained strength and pressure of massive capital outflow eased.
The country is pursuing a prudent and neutral monetary policy in 2017, applying a full range of policy instruments to maintain stable liquidity and hold interest rates at an appropriate level.
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