Press briefing on China's Q1 economic performance

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Speaker:
Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson and director-general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

Chairperson:
Hu Kaihong, vice director-general of the Press Bureau, State Council Information Office

Date:
April 16, 2014

CBN Channel, SMG: Property statistics show that fixed-asset investment (FAI) and the floor space of houses newly built this year have both declined. What role did property investment play in the economic growth slowdown in Q1? Will this lead to a loosening of the house purchase restriction order? Meanwhile, we have heard many rumors. Some say that the governments in second-and-third-tier cities will loosen their curb on house purchases. How do you comment on this? Thank you.

Sheng Laiyun: Thank you for the questions. Regarding the influence of property investment on FAI, the decline in Q1 property investment was indeed a cause of the FAI slowdown. A preliminary estimation has shown that FAI dropped 0.7 percentage points because of a slowdown in the property investment. Regarding the changes in property market, a survey of house prices and property investment in 70 large-and-mid-sized cities in January and February indicates that there were indeed changes in the property market in Q1, but generally speaking, the market remained stable.

According to market surveillance, house prices in Q1 have displayed the following features: First, average house prices were generally stable despite minor fluctuations. Second, there were obvious gaps in house prices, as prices increased slightly in first-tier cities, fluctuated in some second-tier cities, and dropped in third-and-fourth-tier cities where there was a large inventory of houses. But this was a normal market response to regulations. Third, the growth of the house prices slowed down. The changes in property market were due to the market's self-adjustment and government regulations. I believe relevant government departments will keep a close eye on the property market and improve regulations accordingly. They will establish a long-term mechanism to control the property market, so as to ensure the market's stable and healthy development. Thank you.

Financial Times: I have two questions. First, a number of analysts think that the data of foreign trade, especially the export data, in the first quarter of last year were fake. Do you have any internal means to evaluate the changes between the data of the first quarter this year and the data of the first quarter of last year? Secondly, many people are concerned that the current economy is declining rather rapidly, whereas it kept growing rapidly throughout 2008 and 2009 due to policy stimulation in domestic demand. Do you have any comments on that? Thank you.

Sheng Laiyun: Thank you for your two questions. In regards to the first question, the changes in the foreign trade data have already been explained by the spokesmen of their related departments earlier, particularly last year. Since there are trades in some special supervision zones, the trade data acquired from some regions may not be subject to comparison. But setting these data aside, the actual performance of China's foreign trade is better than what is reflected by the data. I see you are interested in foreign trade data, so therefore I can recommend you one in particular as a reference to the changes in China's import and export data: the value of export delivery in industrial enterprises above designated size (enterprises with annual sales exceeding 20 million yuan). The figure, published here at this conference, shows a 4.2 percent increase during the first quarter of this year, slightly down from last year, but still maintaining growth momentum. This figure accounts for some 85 percent of China's export in the first quarter and thus can reflect the changes in China's export to some extent. I suggest you study these data as a necessary supplement to the foreign trade data.

As for the second question, I have touched upon this already when I was explaining the reason behind the lowered growth during the first quarter of this year. China's economy is currently suffering from the aftereffects of three events (changes in economic growth rate, structural adjustment and reaction to earlier stimulation). Thank you.

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