SCIO briefing on China's economy in Q1

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Speakers:
Xing Zhihong, director general of Department of Comprehensive Statistics and spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics


Chairperson:
Xi Yanchun, spokeswoman of the State Council Information Office

Date:
April 17, 2018

Die Welt:

You just answered one question about the problems between China and the United States with the impact of trade, but how bad are you evaluating the whole impact on the Chinese economy if the frictions are going to develop to a sort of a trade war. Thank you. 

Xing Zhihong: 

The United States disregarded the rules of international trade and clung obstinately to its own course of provoking trade frictions. The international community has been worried about this classic act of trade protectionism and unilateralism and China strongly opposes such acts. Our government has responded firmly and fiercely. People are concerned about the effect on China's economy if the frictions continue. I want to say that in recent years, China's economy has seen increasingly sustained, steady, and coordinated growth, and it has strong resilience, potential and leeway. China-U.S. trade frictions won't change the positive trend of sustained and sound economic development in China.

First, China's economy is resilient and adaptable. In recent years, the supply-side structural reform and innovation have stimulated China's internal driving force and vitality for economic growth. More importantly, major changes in the structure of economy have been brought about. Since the Party's 18th National Congress, economic growth has moved out of the developmental stage of being mainly propelled by the industrial sector into the stage of being propelled by the industrial and service sectors together, out of the stage of being mainly propelled by investment into the stage of being propelled by investment and consumption together. And China has transformed from a large export country into a country placing equal stress on export and import. These structural changes have enhanced the stability and resilience of China's economy. 

Over the past few years, the global economy has undergone profound adjustments, and the external environment remains relatively complicated, but China's economy has maintained a growth at a medium-high speed, largely thanks to our economic structure that mainly relies on domestic demand. According to the statistics department, the annual contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economic growth between 2008 and 2017 reached 105.7 percent, a figure more than 100 percent. That is to say, we have been able to hedge the impact of external demand with domestic demand. Especially in 2009 when the international financial crisis hit China hardest, the contribution of domestic demand to China's economic growth exceeded 140 percent. 

Last year, the global economy showed an overall recovery, and it was the same case with the external demand. Even under these circumstances, the contribution of domestic demand to China's economic growth remained at 90.9 percent, so this structure is very critical for us to deal with external shocks. Of the domestic demand, final consumer spending is the primary driving force and the biggest engine. I mentioned just now that the contribution rate of final consumer spending, which was 58.8 percent last year, was 77.8 percent in the first quarter this year. The final consumer spending has been the primary engine of China's economic growth for five years in a row. Compared with exports and investment, the volatility of consumption is significantly smaller, and therefore, an economic structural change like this is crucial to the stability of China's economy.

Second, China's economic development has great potential. In an innovation-driven development strategy, development is the top priority, human resources are the primary resources, and innovation is the main driving force. 

The widespread entrepreneurship and innovation campaign has greatly bolstered the public's enthusiasm. Presently, more than 10,000 new businesses are established every day. Last year, annual R&D investments accounted for 2.12 percent of the national GDP, higher than the average level of 15 EU countries. Now, China's R&D investment is the second highest in the world. According to a ranking of international organizations, China's innovation index last year ranked 22nd in the world, which means China is leading all middle-income countries in terms of R&D investment. 

Because of its entrepreneurship and innovation campaign, China has shifted its reliance on demographic dividends to talent dividends. More than 170 million Chinese people have received higher education and possess specialized skills. They have great potential. This is where China's future lies. 

With technological innovation playing an increasingly significant role in promoting development, China's economy has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. Over the past years, China's economic growth rate has remained one of the fastest among major world economies. Last year, China's technological improvements contributed to 57.5 percent of national economic growth and 30 percent of world economic growth. 

China's economy has great vigor, dynamic and potential. These factors have greatly enhanced the innovative and competitive capacity of the Chinese economy, making us more capable of dealing with complex situations.

Third, we have ample room to maneuver. China is a big country. We have ample room to maneuver in terms of development, industrial systems and macro regulation. 

Regarding development, because of its large territory, China sees different development stages in different regions. Therefore, we are working to accelerate the urbanization drive, to promote coordinated development of the eastern, central, western and northeastern parts, and to foster synergy between the Three Initiatives (the Belt and Road Initiative, the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt), thus to accelerate the balanced development of different regions. The potential of different regions has been further tapped, resulting in new development areas and new development platforms.

Regarding industrial systems, links to all industries can be found in China. This makes us capable of establishing a complete system of industries, promoting the application of scientific and technological advances, and fending off various risks. In this situation, even if some industries are affected, other industries can maintain growth momentum, offset the affected sectors' influence on other industries and on the larger economy, and support and promote the development of the affected sectors. This is a special characteristic of the Chinese economy.

Regarding macro regulation, we also have ample room to maneuver. Presently, China's economy has maintained steady performance; the financial and fiscal systems are running steadily; the foreign exchange reserve is the biggest in the world. As a result, we have plenty of policy tools to use, and they can be used on many occasions. 

To sum up, China is fully capable of handling trade conflicts with the United States, responding to various risks and challenges, and maintaining healthy development of its national economy. Thank you. 

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