Market News International:

Some investors believe China will face greater downward economic pressures next year, considering the negative impact of the China-U.S. trade war, such as falls in the job market and investment, and influences on imports and exports are yet to be fully revealed. So, what is your expectation of next year?

Mao Shengyong: 

According to the statistics of the first three quarters, the national economic performance remained stable. We have certainly noticed growing uncertainties caused by changes in the external environment, but how the current trade friction between China and the United States will develop is unpredictable to some extent. These factors may exert some influence on the Chinese economy and pose some challenges to us. 

Yet, the statistics of the first three quarters show that the factors you just mentioned, such as the job market, the urban unemployment rate and the number of new urban job openings, remained stable. We have conducted investigations on enterprises with high reliance on foreign trade and on export-oriented enterprises in coastal areas. Their employment has  remained generally stable. This means the overall job market is stable. There are some structural conflicts in the job sector. However, we need to wait to see what affects will be produced by the changes in the external environment. 

Regarding influences on investment, presently, as noted, investment is stable. In the first three quarters, foreign direct investment and the inflow of overseas capital increased at a fast speed. The Chinese market is a big one, with great potential; so, it is still attractive to investors.

Regarding imports and exports, the growth rate in the first three quarters was satisfactory. The third quarter in particular saw very fast development. In the period of July, August and September, both the total volume and the growth rate of imports and exports increased each month. This was caused by several factors. For one thing, some enterprises actively changed their operations mode and rhythm to cope with changes in the general environment. For another, a series of foreign trade policies, including the policies and measures to facilitate trade, provided effective support. Besides, many enterprises have adopted a diversified trade strategy. So, when we take a closer look at foreign trade, we find that the growth rate of trade with countries along the routes of the Belt and Road is much higher than the overall figure.

Generally, we are confident of achieving the 6.5 percent economic growth rate set for this year. We will face uncertainties next year; however, the Chinese economy is resilient, and many factors are predictable. Therefore, we hope we can utilize the resilience and our overall strengths to handle external pressures. As long as we focus on our own issues, our economic performance will be stable next year. 

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