SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in the first quarter of 2020
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 18, 2020
Xi Yanchun:
Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media: Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). Today, we will brief you on the national economic performance in the first quarter of 2020. As known to all, the first quarter of this year is a relatively special one, because this is a quarter in which we faced the severe challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is also a quarter in which we coordinated efforts for pandemic prevention and control and economic and social development. We have invited Mr. Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), to brief you and take questions from media friends.
I will now give the floor to Mr. Mao.
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media, good morning. As usual, I will first share with you the basic information on national economic performance in the first quarter, and then I will answer your questions.
Coordinative efforts for pandemic prevention and control and economic and social development have delivered notable results, and the decline of major economic indicators has been significantly narrowed down in March.
In the first quarter, faced with the severe test of the COVID-19 outbreak, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and the whole nation coordinated efforts to advance both the prevention and control of the disease and the economic and social development of the country. As a result, the situation of pandemic control and prevention continued to improve with a basic interruption in virus transmission at home. The resumption of work and production accelerated, with fundamental industries and major products vital to the national economy and people's livelihoods growing steadily. People's basic livelihood was well guaranteed, and national economic and social development reached overall stability.
According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 20.65 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020 — a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% at comparable prices. By industry, the value-added of the primary industry was 1.02 trillion yuan, down by 3.2%; that of the secondary industry was 7.36 trillion yuan, down by 9.6%; and that of the tertiary industry was 12.27 trillion yuan, down by 5.2%.
First, overall agricultural production was steady and the grain grew well.
In the first quarter, the value-added of agriculture (crop farming) grew by 3.5% year-on-year. With currently favorable climate conditions in major farming areas, spring plowing and sowing went smoothly, and winter wheat grew better than last year and average years. By the end of March, the sown area of gradeⅠand gradeⅡseedlings of winter wheat accounted for 87.2% of the total, 3.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter, the output of eggs grew by 4.3%, and that of milk grew by 4.6%. The output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 18.13 million tons. The pig production capacity continued to recover. By the end of the first quarter, 321.2 million pigs were registered in stock — up by 3.5% over the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 — among which 33.81 million were breeding sows, up by 9.8%.
Second, industrial production fell while the industry of basic raw materials and high-tech manufacturing continued to increase.
In the first quarter, the total value-added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 8.4% year-on-year. Specifically, in March, the total value-added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 1.1% year-on-year, or 12.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months, while the month-on-month growth was 32.13%, with the industrial output approaching the level of the same period last year. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value-added of the state holding enterprises dropped by 6% year-on-year; that of share-holding enterprises fell by 8.4%; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was down by 14.5%; and that of private enterprises was down by 11.3%. In terms of sectors, the value-added of mining went down by 1.7%, manufacturing fell by 10.2% and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water was down by 5.2%. The production of basic raw materials and new products maintained growth. The output of natural gas, non-woven fabrics, chemical medicine materials, crude oil, 10 kinds of nonferrous metal, ethylene and crude steel went up by 9.1%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. The output of automatic vending and ticket machines, electronic components, integrated circuits, urban rail vehicles and solar cells went up by 35.3%, 16.2%, 16.0%, 13.1% and 3.4%, respectively. In March, high-tech manufacturing went up by 8.9% year-on-year, and this includes the manufacturing of computers, communication equipment and other electronic equipment, which collectively went up by 9.9%. The output of industrial robots and power generation equipment went up by 12.9% and 20.0%, respectively.
Third, service production dropped while the emerging service industry grew.
In the first quarter, the total value-added of the tertiary industry dropped year-on-year, while that of the information transmission, software and information technology services and that of financial intermediation went up by 13.2% and 6.0%, respectively. In March, the Index of Services Production dropped by 9.1%, 3.9 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months. In the first two months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size dropped by 12.2%; this includes that of internet and related services and that of software and information technology services, which went up by 10.1% and 0.7%, respectively. In March, the Business Activity Index for services was 51.8%, 21.7 percentage points higher than last month. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for transportation, storage and post, retail trades and monetary and financial services was relatively high, reaching 59.3%, 60.6% and 62.9%, respectively. In terms of market expectation, the Business Activities Expectation Index for services was 56.8%, which is 17.1 percentage points higher than last month, showing greater confidence of enterprises in market development.
Fourth, market sales decreased while sales of daily necessities and online retail sales of physical goods grew fast.
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7,858 billion yuan, down by 19.0% year-on-year. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,645 billion yuan, down by 15.8%, a decline narrowed by 4.7 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. The retail sales of goods went down by 12.0%, a decline that has narrowed by 5.6 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas in the first quarter reached 6,785.5 billion yuan, down by 19.1%, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 1,072.5 billion yuan, down by 17.7%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering was 602.6 billion yuan, down by 44.3%; and the retail sales of goods amounted to 7,255.3 billion yuan, down by 15.8%. Commodities closely related to people's lives witnessed growth. The grain, oil and food, beverages and traditional Chinese and Western medicines produced by businesses above the designated size grew by 12.6%, 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively, or 2.9 percentage points, 1.0 percentage point and 2.7 percentage points higher than the growth in the first two months. Online retail sales reached 2,216.9 billion yuan, down by 0.8% year-on-year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 1,853.6 billion yuan, up by 5.9% and 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the first two months of 2020, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the first two months.
Fifth, investment growth slowed down while e-commerce, professional technical services and anti-epidemic related industries saw growth.
In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 8,414.5 billion yuan, down by 16.1% year-on-year and 8.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of 2020. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate development declined by 19.7%, 25.2% and 7.7%, respectively, which amounts to 10.6 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points and 8.6 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of the year. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 219.78 million square meters, down by 26.3%, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 2,036.5 billion yuan, down by 24.7%, the decline of which was narrowed by 13.6 percentage points and 11.2 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year, respectively. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went down by 13.8%; the secondary industry went down by 21.9%; the tertiary industry fell by 13.5%; and the private investment sector reached 4,780.4 billion yuan, down by 18.8%. The decline was narrowed by 11.8 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points, 9.5 percentage points and 7.6 percentage points, respectively, compared to that of the first two months. Investment in high-tech industry declined by 12.1%, which is 4.0 percentage points slower than that of the total investment. Of the total, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services went down by 13.5% and 9.0%, respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, investment in the manufacturing of computers and office equipment grew by 3.2%. In terms of high-tech services, investment in e-commerce services went up by 39.6%, investment in professional technical services went up by 36.7 %, and investment in services for commercialization of research findings rose by 17.4%. Investment in social sectors went down by 8.8%, and investment in the health sector dropped by 0.9%, or 15.2 percentage points slower than the decline of the total investment. Investment in manufacturing of biological medicines, products and other anti-epidemic related industries maintained growth, and construction of key projects for epidemic prevention accelerated. In March, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 6.05% month-on-month.
Sixth, imports and exports of goods slowed down and trade structure continued to optimize.
In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 6,574.2 billion yuan, which is down by 6.4% year-on-year. In March, the total value of imports and exports was 2,445.9 billion yuan, down by 0.8% year-on-year, which is a decline that slowed by 8.7 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. Of the total, the value of exports was 1,292.7 billion yuan, down by 3.5%, and the value of imports was 1,153.2 billion yuan, up by 2.4%, with imports of general trade growing by 4%. In the first quarter, the total value of exports was 3,336.3 billion yuan, down by 11.4%; the total value of imports was 3,238.0 billion yuan, down by 0.7%. The trade balance was 98.3 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to optimize. The import and export of general trade accounted for 60% of the total value of imports and exports, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 2,408.2 billion yuan, down by 10.3% year-on-year and 8.8 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of 2020. In March, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 1,030.7 billion yuan, which is up by 3.1%.
Seventh, the rising of consumer prices declined and producer prices for industrial products saw a larger drop.
In the first quarter, consumer prices went up by 4.9% year-on-year. In March, consumer prices went up by 4.3% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points lower than in February, or down by 1.2% month-on-month. In the first quarter, prices went up by 4.6% in urban areas and by 5.9% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 14.9% year-on-year; clothing went up by 0.2%; housing went up by 0.2%; articles and services for daily use went up by 0.2%; transportation and communication went down by 1.5%; education, culture and recreation went up by 1.9 %; medical services and health care went up by 2.2%; and other articles and services went up by 4.9%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain went up by 0.6%; fresh vegetables went up by 9.0% — specifically, their prices went up by 10.9% in February and down by 0.1% in March; pork went up by 122.5% — specifically, its prices went up by 116.4% in March, which is 18.8 percentage points lower than in February. Core CPI, excluding the price of food and energy, went up by 1.3%.
In the first quarter, producer prices for industrial products went down by 0.6% year-on-year. Specifically, prices in March dropped by 1.5% year-on-year, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the year-on-year decline in February this year, or down by 1.0% month-on-month. In the first quarter, purchasing prices for industrial products went down by 0.8% year-on-year. In March, prices dropped by 1.6% year-on-year, or by 1.1% month-on-month.
Eighth, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas dropped slightly while employment was generally stable.
In the first quarter, the newly increased number of employed people in urban areas totaled 2.29 million. In March, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.9%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of February. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of members of the population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.4%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas and 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.7%, which is the same as last month. In March, the employees of enterprises worked an average of 44.8 hours per week, which is 4.6 hours more than last month. By the end of February, the number of rural migrant workers reached 122.51 million.
Ninth, residents' nominal income increased while real income decreased and the per capita disposable income ratio between urban and rural households dropped slightly.
In the first quarter, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% year-on-year, or a real decrease of 3.9% after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residences, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 11,691 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.5%, or a real decrease of 3.9%. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 4,641 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.9%, or a real decrease of 4.7%. By sources of income, the nationwide per capita wage income went up by 1.2% year-on-year in nominal terms, net operating income went down by 7.3%, net property income went up by 2.7%, and net transfer income went up by 6.8%. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.52 times that of the rural households, a reduction of 0.01 than that of the same period last year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 7,109 yuan, down by 0.7%.
Generally speaking, the overall national economic and social development in the first quarter remained stable despite the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we should also be aware that given the continuous spread of the pandemic, the mounting downward pressure of the world economy, and remarkably increasing instabilities and uncertainties, we are now facing increasing pressure related to the prevention of imported infections and new difficulties and challenges for resuming work and production while continuing to promote economic and social development.
For the next step, we must fully implement the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, further coordinate efforts to advance both epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development and enhance policy implementation to resume work, production, market function and business. We must guarantee and improve people's livelihoods and accelerate the full restoration of productivity and living order under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control measures, thereby ensuring a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society and achieving poverty alleviation goals. Thank you.
Xi Yanchun:
Thank you, Mr. Mao. Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify your news outlets before asking questions.
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