SCIO briefing on China's import and export performance of 2020

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CCTV:

My questions are: What are the main reasons for the growth of China's foreign trade amid the COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020? What do you think of China's foreign trade last year in general? What are your predictions for trends in 2021? I would like to hear your insights. Thank you.

Li Kuiwen:

Thank you for your questions. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council pay great attention to stabilizing foreign trade. General Secretary Xi Jinping advised stabilizing the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment, ensuring smooth operation of foreign trade industrial chains and supply chains, and stabilizing China's international market share. Last year was unusual in the sense that though we were faced with a grave and complex domestic and international landscape and the severe impact posed by COVID-19, China was the only major economy to experience positive growth in trade of goods and exceeded expectations regarding foreign trade overall. This demonstrates great resilience and competitiveness in China's foreign trade and we can say that China achieved stable and high-quality foreign trade.

"Stability" was reflected in three ways. First, a record high in total foreign trade volume and international market share. China saw its foreign trade stabilize quickly after substantial fluctuations in the first quarter of 2020. The trade volume registered a new high in each successive quarter, with the year's total volume reaching a record high of 32 trillion yuan, a figure was attained amid dramatically shrinking global trade. The international market share also registered a record high thanks to the unusual growth of foreign trade. As I just mentioned, the WHO's statistics on monthly trade in goods of major economies showed that China's exports, imports, and the two combined accounted for 14.2%, 11.5%, and 12.8% of the international market in the first 10 months of 2020, 0.4, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points higher than previous records, respectively. Therefore, China's role as the world's largest trader in goods has been further consolidated.

Second, exports have been driven by an increased need for anti-epidemic supplies and products for the "stay-at-home economy." As China brought COVID-19 under effective control and resumed work and production, the country saw its exports rebound in April and maintain growth ever since. With a much higher demand for anti-epidemic materials and products for the "stay-at-home economy" globally, China's exports of textile products (face masks included), medical equipment, and medicine surged by 31%, contributing to a 1.9-percentage-point increase in overall exports. China's exports of laptops, tablet computers, and home appliances rose by 22.1%, increasing overall exports by 1.3 percentage point. Those exported goods met the anti-epidemic needs of countries worldwide as well as those people across the globe living and working at home during the pandemic.

Third, there was a huge boost to imports in the domestic market. China's huge domestic market showed a more prominent advantage in stabilizing imports amid the pandemic. In 2020, in terms of resource products, China imported 7.3% more crude oil and 7% more metal ore, while in terms of agricultural products, China imported 28% and 60.4% more grain and meat, respectively.

Those are the three aspects that reflect "stable" foreign trade.

"Quality improvement" was also demonstrated in three ways. First, through an improved foreign trade structure. Trade growth among private companies in China was 9.2 percentage points higher than the country's overall level in 2020, becoming a major driving force in China's foreign trade. General trade saw year-on-year growth of 0.9% in 2020. The country also saw a more balanced foreign trade development among various regions. With new progress made in transferring industries from eastern China to western and central China, the western and central regions saw their trade increase by 11%, accounting for 17.5% of the country's total and 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous year.

Second, there was an even higher driving force for foreign trade development. As new modes of foreign trade prospered, the trade volume of cross-border e-commerce registered at 1.69 trillion yuan, up by 31.1%, and exports based on procurement from markets increased by 25.2%. China ran 12,400 China-Europe freight trains throughout the year and delivered 1.14 million TEUs, up by 50% and 56% year-on year, respectively. The combined heavy container rate was up to 98.4%.

Third, a higher level of opening up has played a leading role. The trade volume of comprehensive bonded areas and free trade areas increased by 17.4% and 10.7%, respectively. Imports of duty-free goods at Hainan Free Trade Port rose by 80.5%.

The above is my evaluation of the performance of foreign trade imports and exports throughout the year.

As for this year, in my opinion, the global economy is expected to recover and drive trade growth, and the restoration of the Chinese economy's stable growth will help support foreign trade. However, we must also understand that many uncertainties brought about by the pandemic in the external environment remain, and therefore, so too will difficulties and challenges in foreign trade. The new development pattern, in which domestic and foreign markets reinforce each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay, is now taking shape in China at a higher speed. The country is also promoting a higher level of opening up and developing new advantages in international cooperation and competition. Thus, I believe China is expected to maintain its foreign trade growth in 2021 and make fresh progress in its high-quality development.

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