SCIO briefing on government work report

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My question is about the GDP. Last year's government work report did not set specific GDP targets, but we noticed that this year's report has set an expected GDP target of over 6%. For what reasons is this? Given the complex and challenging economic environment both at home and abroad, could you please give some comments on our economic development targets? Thank you.

Sun Guojun:

Thank you. I will answer your questions. Last year's report did not put forward a quantitative target for GDP growth rate. The biggest reason was the great uncertainty. China's economic growth rate was 2.3% in 2020, which was a better-than-expected result and not easy to achieve. 

Implementing the guiding principles of the recent Central Economic Work Conference, this year's government work report sets an expected target for economic growth at over 6%. I will list three factors that have been taken into full consideration.

First, we have taken into account the recovery of economic activity. China's economy has gradually recovered since the second quarter of last year. The momentum of improvement has continued during the third and fourth quarters, so that we can expect a generally stable economic performance this year.

Second, we have taken into account the base figures. For example, due to the base figures for 2020, we can expect an obvious year-on-year rise in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021. Statistically, GDP growth rates may show a falling trend from high to low throughout the year of 2021. However, this will only be the appearance of statistics. For each quarter, we expect GDP growth to be relatively stable compared to the previous quarter.

Third, we have taken into account the need to sustain healthy economic growth. When we set the expected GDP growth target for 2021, we need to take into account both the economic situation of this year and that of the next two years. The expected target should be well-aligned with the annual goals of subsequent years, so as to maintain long-term and steady economic development. Thank you.

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