SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in 2021
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 20, 2022
CNBC:
I have two questions. The first one is about employment. Are there any data where we can see if the proportion of young people in urban and rural areas has changed? And the second: In the growth of the secondary and tertiary industries in the fourth quarter, there are some obvious differences from that of the whole of last year. For example, the secondary industry grew by 2.5% in the fourth quarter and 8.2% for the whole year. The tertiary industry grew by 4.6% in the fourth quarter and 8.2% for the whole year. What are the main reasons for this gap? With the enhanced epidemic prevention measures in January, are there any insights into how we can predict economic growth this year? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
I will focus on the first of your two questions. The first one is about industry and industrial employment. You also mentioned the employment in urban and rural areas. In the data I just released, there is already information about newly-created jobs in urban areas. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate and the surveyed unemployment rate for big cities were also released. Your question focuses on the performance of certain industries. The situation in some of the industries might be different. It is fair to say that in the past year, the increase of new urban employment and the surveyed unemployment rate remained stable in China. Both have achieved their expected goals, or we can say the surveyed unemployment rate is lower than expected. The main reasons are as follows:
First, the continuous recovery and development of the economy has created new jobs and laid the foundation for employment. China's GDP grew by 8.1% in 2021. The economic output in the fourth quarter slowed to 4% year-on-year, but in terms of the two-year average, though the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 grew relatively faster at 6.4%, after been revising down from the previous 6.5%, the two-year average growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 registered 5.2%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the 4.9% in the third quarter. The steady economic growth has provided an important foundation for employment. When we observe economic growth, we should look not only at the year-on-year data but also the month-on-month data and the average data of two years. In fact, it also offered some tips to your second question.
Second, the policy of prioritizing employment has produced remarkable results. A series of policies that were designed to help enterprises and stabilize jobs have played a positive role in the employment of college graduates, rural migrant workers, and other key groups. The total number of migrant workers in 2021 was 292.51 million, an increase of 6.91 million over 2020. The number in 2020 is lower than that in 2019. The number in 2021 has already exceeded the level of 2019 before the COVID-19 epidemic. Please pay attention to this. At the same time, the surveyed unemployment rate of migrant agricultural residents has remained at a low of less than 5% since the second half of last year.
Third, new forms of employment are flourishing. China's new industries, new forms of business, and new models continued to develop rapidly last year, with various flexible employment models absorbing a lot of the labor force. At present, there are about 200 million people working flexible jobs in China, with food deliverymen accounting for about 4 million and online broadcasters and related employees accounting for more than 1.6 million on some platforms, nearly three times that of last year.
Fourth, employment in some industries increased considerably. Although the number of employees in some service industries, manufacturing, and construction has dropped, the number in other industries has increased, underpinning the overall stability of employment. From November to December in 2021, the number of workers in the wholesale and retail industry; transportation, warehousing, and postal industries; residential service industry; and commercial service industry rose by 1.81 million, 410,000, 330,000, and 280,000, respectively, which has offset the declines in employment in other sectors.
Fifth, the surveyed unemployment rate shows that some people have temporarily withdrawn from the labor market. While the surveyed urban unemployment rate focuses on the urban labor market, we have also carried out surveys in rural areas. The national surveyed unemployment rate is generally lower than that of urban areas. However, from the perspective of urban and rural areas, if a migrant worker returns to the countryside, then the person no longer belongs to the urban labor market, and should be included in the labor force survey in the countryside. In addition, from the perspective of the city itself, some people are counted as “not in the labor force” due to reasons like seasonal business closures, or to take care of their families, health, education, and training. For example, workers in agriculture or construction will temporarily withdraw from the labor force in winter.
Your second question is about the gap between the service sector and the industrial sector. Thanks to a series of policies and measures supporting the industrial sector as well as the joint efforts of enterprises, the industrial sector and manufacturing sector maintained recovery momentum in the fourth quarter. You just mentioned statistics of the service sector. The service sector, which contains many industries, grew rapidly in general. The annual growth rate of both the service sector and industrial sector reached 8.2%. The impact of the service sector on employment should be reviewed based on different industries. It has exerted a greater impact on some industries, such as high-contact service industries and those with a high-density work environment, and has had a lesser impact on industries supporting freight transport, logistics, and industrial chains. So we must stabilize and promote the growth of those industries that ensure normal life and work, and follow routine, targeted COVID-19 protocols to ensure a good environment for economic and social development.
Because this year's first-quarter statistics are expected to be released in April, we have to take some targeted measures according to the situation last year to ensure employment and reasonable economic growth. Thank you.
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