SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in first quarter of 2023

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Yicai:

What's your opinion on the investment data in the first quarter? Private investment has been low for some time, registering growth of only 0.6% in the first quarter. What are the reasons for this?

Fu Linghui:

The issue of investment has raised much attention. On the whole, China is still the largest developing country in the world. There is still a big gap between our per capita capital stock and that of developed countries. More investment is needed to address unbalanced and inadequate development, break through bottlenecks in science and technology, accelerate innovation-driven development, and promote high-quality development.

Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to expand domestic demand and give full play to the key role of investment in improving the supply structure. We have increased investment in key fields and at key links, and are actively working to expand investment in areas that are important to people's wellbeing so as to ensure and improve their lives. Steady investment growth has played a positive role in driving economic growth. In the first quarter, fixed asset investment rose by 5.1% year on year, strengthening the basis for sustained growth. Investment in China has the following characteristics:

First, manufacturing investment has experienced rapid growth. The size of China's manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world for many years and is the cornerstone of our industrial development, boasting strong competitive advantages. However, there are still many shortcomings in certain key areas. China's manufacturing industry has huge potential to transform and upgrade amid a new wave of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation. China places great importance on the manufacturing industry's development and actively supports manufacturing innovation. Since the beginning of this year, manufacturing investment has sustained a rapid growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in the first quarter, significantly faster than total investment growth. Specifically, investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 15.2%.

Second, infrastructure investment has grown rapidly. While China has made remarkable progress in infrastructure construction, we still need to speed up efforts to address the disparities in infrastructure between rural and urban areas. We must strengthen our weaknesses in the areas of transportation, water conservation and energy. With the expansion of digital, intelligent and green development, there is a growing demand for new infrastructure, such as 5G networks, charging facilities and big data centers. This year, we actively advanced infrastructure construction and achieved positive results. In the first quarter of this year, China's infrastructure investment grew by 8.8% year on year, bolstering the momentum for sustainable development in the future.

Third, investment in people's livelihoods has increased. China attaches great importance to ensuring and improving people's livelihoods. In recent years, we have consistently increased spending on improving people's living standards to promote people's well-being. This year, investment in the social sectors maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the first quarter. Notably, health investment grew by 21.6%, which will help protect people's health.

Generally, this year, China's investment has sustained steady growth, and its structure has continued to be optimized, benefiting both economic growth and long-term development. However, we should note that the steady growth of investment still faces some constraints. In the next phase, we will focus on improving the quality of investment and promoting high-quality economic development, considering both the present and long-term benefits.

Regarding the issue of private investment, there are many influencing factors, and one of the major aspects is the adjustment of the real estate market. Private investment in real estate development declined by 13.8% in the first quarter, dragging down the rate of increase in private investment by 5 percentage points. Of course, private investment also faces other constraints, such as the downward slide in corporate performance and unstable market expectations. Overall, actively improving the market environment and increasing support for private enterprises will help stabilize private investment. Thank you.

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