Top 20 development trends in China over the next 20 years (part 1)

By Lin Liyao
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail, October 3, 2014
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After years of double-digit growth, China has become the second largest economy in the world. Along with rapid economic development, Chinese society has emerged with a range of new characteristics and new contradictions. In the next two decades, what will change China? And how will China change the world? China-USA Benchmark Group, a leading Chinese consulting company, gives their answers.

1. The expansion of urbanization

In the next 20 years, urbanization will undoubtedly be the biggest trend in Chinese society. By 2030, 60 percent of the Chinese population will live in cities. Although the country's reform and opening-up provides the framework for economic development, the driving force of economic growth comes from the process of urbanization.

Urbanization not only means the transition from agricultural households to non-agricultural households, but also the expansion of urban living styles featuring population clusters and urban consumption into farther regions.

The rural-urban fringe, prefecture-level cities, counties and towns will become the main battle fields of Chinese urbanization. Increasing consumption in counties and towns will create more vital opportunities for starting business. Chain services centered in prefecture-level cities with branch locations in counties and towns will emerge rapidly and will offer a large number of business opportunities.

2. Globalization and China's rise

Nowadays, globalization is a mainstream trend in every corner of the world. Over the next two decades, China will speed up the pace of its globalization process. As China plays a more and more important role across the world, China's experience will become more influential and valuable. China's rise will therefore become a driving force in the imminent changes in China's level of globalization.

Meanwhile, trade friction, exchange rates, resource contention, financial security, and the arms race will become increasingly serious problems as China joins in the process of globalization.

3. The power of capital will be strengthened

In the next 20 years, as capital efficiency and capital management in China advance, capital will play a more vital role in China's economic development. Financial market management expansion, the gradual legalization of underground finance networks, expansion of private investment, and the growth of private capital are the four primary trends in China's future financial development.

A large number of private financial syndicates will emerge rapidly in China, and become one of the most important sectors in the Chinese financial market. Private capital and national capital will combine to form Chinese capital, which is sure to become a significant force in international finance.

4. More democratic politics, more scientific system

In the next two decades, China's political reform will enter “uncharted waters” of difficult decisions but an overall bright outlook.

Taking economic development and social stability into account, county-level governments will become the forefront of reform. Some departments will also be subject to reform; but due to high costs, substantial resistance and a low success rate, department-related reform will likely amount to little more than a formality.

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