中外观年度观察：中国外交回顾与展望
Review and prospects of China's diplomacy
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中国网总编辑王晓辉 |
| 作者：王晓辉 | By Wang Xiaohui |
| 2016年，不论是对中国还是对世界来说，都注定不会是平静的一年。美国总统大选，英国公投脱欧，中菲南海争端，美韩部署“萨德”，地区冲突加剧，恐怖袭击不断……所有这些，都给国际政治和安全带来极大的不确定性，也给中国的外交带来了巨大的挑战。用外交部长王毅的话说，2016年的世界就是两个字：“变”与“乱”。 | The year 2016 was eventful both to China and other countries. In addition to growing regional conflicts and incessant terrorist attacks, the presidential election of the United States, the exit of Great Britain from the EU, disputes over South Chinese Sea islands between China and the Philippines and the deployment of U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea have all added to the uncertainty of international politics and world order and posed great challenges to China's diplomatic work. As Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi put it, the year 2016 could be summed up with two words - "changes" and "chaos." |
| 回顾 | Review |
| 一、 中美关系基本稳定，2017年变数增加 | I. Chinese-U.S. ties remained stable but eventful. |
| 2016年，中美之间有矛盾、有斗争，也有合作，可以说保持了基本稳定的关系。中美两国领导人通过“瀛台夜话”、“西湖长谈”，不断进行增信释疑的战略沟通，以确保中美关系沿着正确的轨道向前发展。当然，由于中美之间结构性矛盾，战略互疑也就成了客观存在，更何况在许多涉及地缘政治、领土安全、经济利益等具体问题上，两国之间存在着十分突出的矛盾和冲突。最典型的例子就是中菲南海争端中美国的幕后推手角色以及在韩国部署“萨德”之举。 | Ties between China and the United States remained stable in 2016 despite various incidents. After President Obama's visit to Beijing and the G20 Hangzhou Summit, the two countries have strengthened strategic communication, built mutual trust and dispersed doubts, thus ensuring a sound development of ties. But strategic doubts still remain, especially where geopolitics, territorial sovereignty and economic interests are concerned. The South China Sea disputes between China and the Philippines, in which Washington had played a behind-the-scenes role, and the deployment of the U.S. THAAD system in South Korea are just two cases in point. |
| 特朗普当选美国总统之后，出现了一些令人担忧的苗头。先是这位当选总统于12月2日与台湾地区领导人蔡英文通电话，虽然事后特朗普本人和白宫发言人均出来做解释、打补丁，但此事还是给中美关系蒙上了一层阴影，毕竟，这是中美建交37年的第一次。随后特朗普开始提名内阁组成人员，从部分即将入阁的官员过往的对华态度上，可以预测，今后的中美关系将面临来自白宫内部的压力。 | Since Donald Trump was elected to be the next President of the United States, Chinese-U.S. relations have shown worrisome signs. On Dec. 2, Trump talked with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen on the phone. Despite explanations by the President-elect himself and the White House's spokesperson afterwards, the call cast a shadow over bilateral ties, as such a thing hadn't happened in the 37 years since the two countries established diplomatic ties. Moreover, Trump's cabinet picks and their attitudes toward China also indicated that the development of bilateral relations will face great pressure from the White House in the future. |
| 二、“黑天鹅”事件频现，影响世界政治走向 | II. Frequent "black swan" events affected the world. |
| 2016年是多事之秋。国际上大事不断，加之“黑天鹅”事件频频出现，使得国际政治的不确定性增加，甚至政治走向也会发生改变。 | A lot of events happened in 2016 that were unexpected and had a major impact on the world. They made the world even more uncertain and are highly likely to change the progress of international politics. |
| 美国大选中，“黑马”特朗普完成惊天逆转，摘得美国总统桂冠；英国公投脱欧，首相卡梅伦辞职，在欧盟引发了强烈震荡；政治生涯逐渐走顺的朴槿惠，突然爆出“闺蜜门”，韩国朝野一片哗然，终于一发不可收拾，被迫辞职；12月5日，意大利总理伦齐和新西兰总理约翰•基同一日宣布辞职；12月19日，俄罗斯驻土耳其大使遇刺身亡…… | Trump's surprise win in the U.S. presidential election, the shock of Brexit and the following resignation of British Prime Minister David Cameron, the final resignation of scandal-embattled South Korean president Park Geun-hye, the resignations of the prime ministers of New Zealand and Italy on the same day and the assassination of Russian ambassador in Turkey are just a few of the major "black swan" events from last year. |
| 商人出身的特朗普和他的富商幕僚会将美国带到哪条路上？会不会挑起与中国新一轮的贸易战？英国脱欧与意大利公投失败带来的金融动荡，给本来就缺乏凝聚力的欧盟带来怎样的影响？所有这些，加上一年之内美国、巴西、英国、韩国、意大利、泰国、新西兰等多个国家总统、总理发生变化，必然在一定程度上改变世界的政治面貌，影响世界的政治走向。 | What will happen to the United States after its businessman-cum-president assumes office with his team of billionaires? Will there be another round of trade wars with China? Besides the jitters in the financial market, what impact will Brexit and Italy's referendum leave on an already struggling EU? The changes of state leaders in the United States, Brazil, Britain, South Korea, Italy, Thailand, New Zealand and many other countries will surely affect world politics. |
| 三、“南海仲裁案”翻页，中菲关系戏剧反转 | III. Philippines' U-turn towards China after the South China Sea arbitration case. |
| 2016年，最让中国人印象深刻的外交大事件之一莫过于菲律宾南海仲裁案。从年初一直到7月中旬，沸沸扬扬的南海仲裁案才以非法、无效的裁决闹剧结束。在此之前，菲律宾阿基诺三世政府单方面提起仲裁，寄希望于通过临时仲裁庭这样一个“草台班子”做出的非法裁决，将本不属于自己的领土和权益纳入囊中。美国、日本等国的支持和怂恿，也给了阿基诺三世把事情闹大的底气。这虽然不是“豪夺”，但绝对算得上“巧取”。 | The arbitration of the South China Sea disputes, which was initiated unilaterally by former Filipino president Benigno S. Aquino III, the United States, Japan and a handful of other third-party countries, had a deep impression on the Chinese people last year, as it started on the first day of the Chinese lunar new year and ended in July with an illegal and void ruling. |
| 在这场水深浪急的外交斗争中，中国展现出了高度的政治实力和应对能力，最终使这场闹剧无疾而终。 | During the process, China showed strong political power and responded skillfully. |
| 6月30日，杜特尔特宣誓就任菲律宾总统。这位聪明、现实的新总统没有硬着头皮接下前任留给他的负面政治遗产，而是主动与中国改善关系，把中国作为上任后东盟以外的首访国家。中菲关系的华丽转身看起来颇具戏剧性，其实，这是中国三十多年来改革开放、自强不息的结果，也是中国政府和人民上下一心、众志成城的结果。中菲南海问题趋于平静，中菲关系向好，为中国今后通过谈判和共同开发解决南海问题打下了良好的基础，也为维护中国和平发展环境起到了至关重要的作用，应该载入史册。 | When Rodrigo Duterte assumed office as the new Filipino president on June 30, the realistic man didn't inherent the negative political baggage left behind by his predecessor, but made the wise choice to choose China as the first country to visit outside the ASEAN region, thus mending ties with China. The gradual return to stability in the South China Sea and the restoration of Chinese-Filipino relations will lay a foundation for solving the South China Sea issue through talks and joint development. It's also vitally important to promoting a peaceful environment for China's development. This event will go down in history. |
| 四、“一带一路”稳步推进，周边外交纵横捭阖 | IV. The Belt and Road Initiative made steady progress; diplomatic activities with neighboring countries achieved positive results. |
| 2016年，中国国家主席习近平提出的“一带一路”倡议已经进入了全面推进、初见成效的时期。随着亚投行、丝路基金和众多经济合作项目的设立，“一带一路”建设正在从倡议进入实施阶段。 | Last year saw the steady and comprehensive progress of the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. With the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Silk Road Fund and various economic cooperative programs, the initiative has gradually come into being. |
| 2016年9月，在杭州举办的G20峰会，成了向世界推广中国治理模式的平台，而“一带一路”建设自然而然地成了中国模式的主要内容。习近平主席年内的5次出访，也有力地推动了“一带一路”建设。从年初开始，习近平主席的足迹遍及五大洲14个国家，其主线都是在推动“一带一路”外交的实施。 | At the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September last year, China provided the world with a new model of global governance, and the Belt and Road Initiative provided a promotional platform for the model. The five overseas trips to 14 countries President Xi made last year were a boon to the development of the initiative. |
| 与“一带一路”外交相辅相成的是，2016年中国政府在周边外交上持续发力，成效显著。“G20杭州峰会”成了中国政府推动全球治理、开展周边外交的舞台。10月份，习主席访问柬埔寨，发出了中国重视老朋友，珍惜传统友谊的明确信号；以昂山素季为首的缅甸新政府把中国作为东盟之外的首访国家，表达了愿意续写“胞波”情谊的愿望；斯里兰卡新政府也认识到中国的诚意，以科伦坡港口城为代表的合作建设项目重新启动。 | Moreover, much progress has been made in China's diplomatic activities with neighboring countries. The G20 Hangzhou Summit offered a platform for China to participate in global governance and enhance its ties with neighbors. President Xi's visit to Cambodia, Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi's choice of China as the first country to visit outside the ASEAN region and Sri Lanka's resumption of the Colombo Port City project are just a few of the results China achieved last year. |
| 中国秉持“以邻为伴、与邻为善”的外交方针，但在地区安全、国家利益、领土主权等大是大非的问题上，一贯立场坚定、旗帜鲜明。中国坚持朝鲜半岛无核化立场，反对美韩部署“萨德”反导系统，对菲律宾南海诸岛主权的无礼要求以及日本搬弄是非、煽风点火的行为给予了坚决回击。正是凭借亲、诚、惠、容的外交理念和刚柔并济的外交手段，中国的周边外交才能纵横捭阖、可圈可点。 | China consistently pursues a foreign policy of building friendship and partnership with its neighbors. It also keeps a consistent and clear position when major issues like regional security, national interests and territorial sovereignty are concerned. Therefore, China has insisted on the promotion of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, on opposition to the deployment of the U.S. THAAD system in South Korea, on the dismissal of the illegal claims on the South China Sea islands by the Philippines and on a firm reaction to all of Japan's trouble-making activities. All the achievements China has made in the diplomatic field should be attributed to its regional policy of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness, its firm stance on important issues and its skillful approaches in diplomatic activities. |
| 五、“逆全球化”浪潮涌起，中国成中流砥柱 | V. China upheld free trade while anti-globalization gained increasing popularity. |
| “逆全球化”并非新生事物，而是“全球化”的伴生物，由来已久，其根源则是国际金融危机导致的经济衰退。近年来，美国和日本经济增长乏力，而欧洲经济则陷于衰退之中难以自拔，加上欧美中东政策导致的难民问题，更是让贸易保护主义抬头，“逆全球化”的潮流有了市场。 | Anti-globalization is nothing new, but a concomitant of globalization. It stems from the economic recession that followed in the wake of the global financial crisis. In recent years, the United States and Japan have witnessed sluggish growth, Europe has been stuck in recession, and the refugee crisis remains unresolved in the Middle East - all these issues have given rise to trade protectionism and a trend of anti-globalization. |
| 2016年12月，日本正式宣布不承认中国的市场经济地位，欧盟宣称要维持“替代国”的做法，而美国则发出了在特朗普上台之后对中国产品征收45%惩罚性关税的威胁。这三方的“大合唱”可以说是2016年最为汹涌的一波“逆全球化”浪潮了。 | In late 2016, Japan announced it would not recognize China's market economy status, the European Union said it would continue with the alternative country approach in trade and American President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 45 percent tariff on Chinese goods. This was one of the most severe anti-globalization moves in 2016. |
| 中国自上世纪80年代至今，坚持改革开放，不断融入国际社会，参与全球治理，已经从全球化的最大受益者变身为全球化的最有力的推动者。在2016年9月G20杭州峰会上，中国为构建创新、活力、联动、包容的世界经济提供了中国方案，这是中国为推动全球化做出的最大贡献。当然，中国能为全球化的全球治理做出贡献的前提是自身经济的发展。还是小平同志当年的那句话：发展是硬道理。 | Since the 1980s, China has been committed to reform and opening-up, integrating itself into the international community and engaging in global governance. It has changed its role from a major beneficiary to an unwavering promoter of globalization. During the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September 2016, China contributed its plans for building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy, which was one of the greatest contributions made to globalization. Of course, the contribution cannot come without the country's own economic development. In Deng Xiaoping's words, development is key. |
| 展望 | Prospects |
| 大国要有大国的风范与气象，胸怀与担当。2017年，世界和平与发展的大趋势不会改变，但各种乱象还将持续。中国要在复杂多变的国际局势中发挥“稳定器”的作用，为自身营造和平发展的环境，同时，也为世界的和平与发展做出贡献。 | A major country should have a befitting presence and take on its due responsibilities. Peace and development will still be the main theme in the world in 2017, but chaos and disorder will linger as well. China will be playing the stabilizing role in a complicated and capricious international arena, creating a peaceful environment for its own development as well as contributing to the peace and development of the world. |
| 一、处理好大国关系，确保中美、中俄关系持续、健康、稳定发展。中美关系的关键是先管控分歧，再务实合作。中美两个大国只有相互尊重，照顾彼此的核心利益和重大关切，如台湾问题，才有可能长久稳定合作，实现互利共赢。中俄战略合作伙伴关系发展平稳，2017年在加强合作的同时，应关注美俄、日俄关系的新进展，把握平衡。 | First, China should properly handle relations with major countries, ensuring the continuation of sound and stable development in China-U.S. and China-Russia ties. The key to China-U.S. relations is to manage disagreements before committing to pragmatic cooperation. The two countries can only have long-term stable cooperation and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results when they respect each other and take into consideration the issues concerning the other's core interests and major concerns, for instance the Taiwan question. The current China-Russian strategic partnership is sound and stable. While enhancing cooperation with Russia, China should closely watch new developments in U.S.-Russia and Japan-Russia ties in 2017. |
| 二、巩固2016年针对菲律宾南海仲裁案的外交成果，争取南部海疆的长期稳定。中菲关系的改善具有典型意义，应以此为契机，强化中国在南海搁置争议共同开发的一贯理念，让世界看到中国是讲道理的文明大国。 | Second, China should cement the diplomatic achievements made after the South China Sea arbitration in 2016 and strive for the long-time stability of its southern waters. The improvements in China-Philippines relations can and should be used as a demonstration of China's commitment to the principle of "shelving disputes and engaging in joint exploitation," as well as its pledge to playing by the book. |
| 三、关注朝鲜半岛局势，深耕周边外交。朝鲜和韩国这对冤家都在中国的家门口，一个要搞核试验，一个要部署“萨德”，而韩国当下又因总统“闺蜜门”面临政权更迭的局面，使得本来就不稳定的朝鲜半岛局势变得更加紧张和难以预测。因此，朝鲜半岛一定是中国外交关注的重点，半岛无核化是中国必须坚持的立场。 | Third, China should keep a close eye on the Korean Peninsula and invest in the relations with its neighbors. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming more intense and unpredictable, as North Korea continues to carry out nuclear tests and South Korea intends to deploy the THAAD system while in the midst of a transition in leadership following the impeachment of its scandal-ridden president. The peninsula is a key for China's foreign relations, and the country must uphold the principle of denuclearization on the peninsula. |
| 四、2017年，中国在推进与东南亚国家双边外交的同时，应重点关注并处理好与同美国越走越近的新加坡的关系。中国要充分发挥上合组织的机制作用和“一带一路”建设的推动作用，与中亚国家建立更加密切的经济交往和国际合作。 | Fourth, while promoting bilateral relations with Southeast Asian countries, China should pay attention to its relations with Singapore, which is moving closer to the United States. China should also forge closer economic ties and other forms of cooperation with Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Belt and Road Initiative. |
| 五、推进“一带一路”建设，以经济合作促进外交关系。“一带一路”既是经贸合作的平台，也是开展外交的舞台。2017年是习近平主席倡导“一带一路”的第四个年头，建设成果初步显现，得到了越来越多的国家的认同和支持。这也充分说明，中国深化国际合作的创新实践，必须与外交大局相辅相成，才能相得益彰。 | Fifth, the Belt and Road Initiative should be promoted, and economic cooperation should facilitate diplomacy. The Belt and Road is not only a platform for economic cooperation but also for foreign relations. The year 2017 marks the fourth year of the introduction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the initial achievements have been made and won the recognition and support of an increasing number of countries. This proves that innovations in deepening international cooperation must go along with major diplomatic moves so as to benefit each other. |
| 六、积极参与全球治理，大步迈向世界舞台中央。2017年，中国应继续巩固和落实G20杭州峰会成果，借助重要的国际会议如达沃斯论坛、上合组织和APEC等多边合作机制，特别是在中国举办的“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛和金砖国家第九次会晤两大主场外交，推广中国方案，在全球治理中发挥更大的作用，大步迈向世界舞台的中央。 | Sixth, China should actively participate in global governance and have greater presence in the international community. It should implement the agreements achieved in the G20 Hangzhou Summit, make good use of a number of multilateral cooperation mechanisms - including the World Economic Forum and Shanghai Cooperation Organization - as well as of the opportunity to host the Belt and Road international forum and the 9th BRICS summit, in order to contribute Chinese solutions to global governance while engaging with the international community. |
| 2017年的世界不会平静，2017年的中国外交更不会平凡。借用李白的一句诗作为新年寄语：长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海！ | The world will not be a peaceful one in 2017, but Chinese diplomacy will be more than remarkable. Let me quote a line from the great ancient poet Li Bai as a wish for the new year: "A time will come to ride the wind and cleave the waves, I'll set my cloudlike sail to cross the sea which raves." |
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