Price too high

Opinion surveys illustrated the political risk for Obama to send more troops and other resources to Afghanistan.

In a CNN poll released on Tuesday, a majority, or 57 percent of Americans now oppose the war, an all-time high. The number has been on the rise steadily in recent months.

The worse thing is that the majority of anti-war folks come from Obama's own camp: Democrats and independents.

"The public doesn't see Afghanistan as a lost cause. But there may be a lot of Americans who question whether a victory in Afghanistan is worth the cost, " said CNN polling director Keating Holland.

Indeed, comparing the huge price the United States has paid for the war, the outcome is hardly satisfying.

Even the new Obama administration formulated a new strategy, sending more troops and replacing US military and civilian leaders in Afghanistan, the situation there is getting worse.

Attacks incidents have quadrupled since 2007 while August became the most deadly month for US troops in Afghanistan since 2001.

The US-supported government in Kabul controls less than one-third of the country, as the Brookings Institute ranked the country "second weakest nation" in the developing world.

Cash-strapped American taxpayers are more worried about the open-end and growing US spending for the war.

The United States has so far spent 223 billion US dollars in its military efforts in Afghanistan while annual nonmilitary aid to Afghanistan increased from less than one billion dollars in 2003 to 9.3 billion dollars last year.

Most analysts agree that Obama's new strategy means more war costs.

No end in sight

Obama said in a recent speech that the Afghan war, which has become the second-longest overseas war for United States in recent history, is "war of necessity" and won't end soon.

But he has no answer for a question many Americans care most:

"How long will it last and how much will it cost?"

Many analysts admit there is no end in sight for this war.

"We will need a large combat presence for many years to come, and will probably need a large financial commitment longer than that," said Stephen Biddle, a defense expert at the Council of the Foreign Relations.

There are fears among American public and politicians that with an open-ended war, Afghanistan could be another Vietnam.

The House Appropriations Committee said in a recent report that its members are "concerned about the prospects of an open-ended US commitment to bring stability to a country that has a decades-long history of successfully rebuffing foreign military intervention and attempts to influence internal politics."

Some columnists and politicians are openly calling for an exit plan.

However, for Obama who inherited the war and made it his own, a retreat will risk a come-back of al Qaida and new terrorist attacks on US soil.

But if he goes along with his strategy and keep increasing input of resources into this war, he will risk further alienating his political base.

The best hope for Obama is his strategy, being refined by recommendations from McChrystal, can turn around the tide of war in 12 to 18 months.

But even if he reaches that goal, it will take many more years to reduce sharply the threat from the Taliban and al Qaida, said analyst Cordsman.

The prospect that whether his strategy will work or not, will depend on various factors and is hard to predict.

(Xinhua News Agency September 4, 2009)