Opinion     

Disturbing developments on Peninsula

China Daily, March 29, 2013

• Having a blast [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

  The third nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea created greater "shock waves" than the second. That is because many nuclear experts suspect the DPRK might have tested a bomb small enough to fit on Unha-3, the carrier rocket it launched in December to successfully put a satellite into obit.

  Some countries, especially the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan, fear that the DPRK would soon be able to fit nuclear weapons on missiles and threaten their security. Indeed, the DPRK has threatened to launch "pre-emptive" nuclear strikes against the US, the ROK and Japan.

  In the face of the DPRK's nuclear threats, many people (politicians included) in the ROK and Japan feel the need to strike a "balance of terror" by developing their own nuclear weapons. Seoul and Tokyo may face great hurdles to develop nuclear arms, but the very fact that they have felt the need for it is worrying, because it could trigger a nuclear arms race in the region.

  Of course, Japan and the ROK have to get the nod from the US and the international community before developing nuclear weapons. They also have to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons giving a very strong reason for doing so. The NPT says: "Each party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country."

  The international community, however, will never accept the withdrawal of the ROK and Japan from the NPT to develop nuclear weapons, because it could trigger the collapse of the global nuclear order established by the treaty with disastrous consequences. Moreover, the ROK and Japan will break the US-led global framework and undermine Washington's presence in the Asia-Pacific region if they develop nuclear weapons. Therefore, instead of giving the nod to the ROK and Japan, the US will take measures to thwart their nuclear ambitions. But since the nuclear threat felt by the ROK and Japan is real, the US has to ensure their security.

  The DPRK's nuclear program has entered a critical stage, and it is bound to conduct more missile and nuclear tests, for it seems determined to become a nuclear-weapon state. That is to say, the DPRK will continue pursuing its nuclear-arms program, because it considers it a deterrent against countries such as the US, the ROK and Japan. Under such circumstances, if Japan and the ROK do not get reliable security guarantee, they could be forced to develop nuclear weapons even at the risk of antagonizing some countries.

  The US has taken steps to curb the nuclear desire of the ROK and Japan, though the international community as a whole is yet to react. The US measures mainly include providing its allies with an effective umbrella against nuclear attacks. On March 18, The New York Times published an editorial, "No Nukes on the Korean Peninsula", which said that if the US let the ROK reprocess spent nuclear fuel under a new nuclear cooperation agreement, it will make it easier for Seoul to develop nuclear weapons, but such actions will not make the ROK safer.

  The editorial argued against the ROK developing nuclear weapons. US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon reinforced the point, saying Washington will "draw upon the full range of our capabilities to protect against, and respond to, the threat posed to us and to our allies by the DPRK".

  The US has been conducting a series of military drills to show how determined it is to protect its allies. For the latest US-ROK joint military exercise, the US broke a rule by making public the participation of its nuclear submarine and B-52 bombers to remind Pyongyang that Washington will not be a passive onlooker if its allies come under nuclear threat. On March 24, the ROK and US defense forces signed the Combined Counter-Provocation Plan that details how they should cooperate to deal with the DPRK's provocations. This can be regarded as an important security commitment made by the US to the ROK.

  By signing the plan, the US has made two strategic purposes clear. On one hand, the US has demonstrated that instead of compromising in the face of the DPRK's threat, it is determined to provide security cover to its allies. On the other, Washington showed Seoul and Tokyo that it can provide a reliable umbrella against nuclear attacks and thus curbed their desire to develop nuclear arms.

  The US efforts may have had a positive effect on Japan and the ROK. But they have triggered concern among China, Russia and some of their neighboring countries, for the strengthening of the alliance between the US and Japan or the US and the ROK could change the geopolitics of the region.

  That an increasing number of people in the ROK and Japan are demanding that the two countries develop their own nuclear weapons shows that the DPRK nuclear issue is not a matter just between the US and the DPRK; it is a major challenge for the entire world. Of course, the best way to solve the problem is to persuade the DPRK to abandon its nuclear program. But since Pyongyang is not expected to heed to such a request, the international community should take every measure possible to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.

  The author is a professor of Korean Studies at Yanbian University in Jilin province.

   

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