'Thucydides's Trap' author offers 'avenues of escape' for China, US
- By Zhang Lulu
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 25, 2019
Graham Allison, who coined the term "Thucydides's Trap," is offering ways to pacify the dangerous rivalry between China and the U.S. in his latest book, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?"
The Harvard professor's book, first published in English in 2017, is now out in Chinese this January.
In the book, Allison borrows from ancient Athenian historian Thucydides's observation of the danger of conflict between a rising power and a ruling power, and raised the alarming bell for China and the U.S.
After examining 16 cases where an ascending power poses threat to an established power in the past 500 years, Allison found 12 out of the 16 ended in war, and warned in the case of China and the U.S., "If both sides follow business as usual, we should expect history as usual," he writes in an emailed interview with China.org.cn.
The author identifies five scenarios where China and the U.S. can veer toward armed conflict in his book, including accidental collisions at sea and economic confrontations.
Trade tensions between China and the U.S. have been rising since last spring when U.S. President Donald Trump imposed gigantic tariffs on imports from China. In the latest development of the trade disputes, a vice-ministerial level talk was held, seen by many as paving way toward resolution.
"The way ahead for the United States and China to avoid a full-scale tariff war has become clear," Allison commented on the latest negotiations, adding that he believes the current three-month truce brokered between the two countries will be extended for another six months in which "a second phase of negotiations will address even more contentious issues."
But the professor warned that "on the larger geopolitical chessboard, the tariff dispute is a relatively small item," hence he has identified potential "clues for peace" in the book for China and the U.S., such as supranational entities and international laws, like the establishment of the U.N. after the World War II.
Allison said he believes currently one of the most promising "avenues of escape" begins with John F. Kennedy's concept of a "world safe for diversity," which the late American president came up with in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This is similar to former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai's concept of "peaceful coexistence," Allison noted, explaining that these concepts mean that two countries can compete in one arena and cooperate in another.
The author concludes his book with four ideas that he believes American leaders should begin with in order to avoid a war with China — for instance, "clarify vital interests" and "make domestic challenges central."
He explained on the latter that if both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping listened to what the late Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew — about whom the author wrote a book — had said, "they would focus on what matters most: their domestic problems."
Allison said the U.S. president should focus on American national security and the country's standing in the world, adding, "The answer to both questions is found not in China but in failures of the American political system."
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