SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in Q1 2026

ThePaper.cn:

How do you evaluate the consumption data in the first quarter? What contribution has consumption made to economic growth? And what role have policies including the consumer goods trade-in programs had in stimulating consumption? Thank you.

Mao Shengyong:

Thank you. Consumption is a top public concern, and authorities have rolled out a raft of policies to promote consumption. Consumption is essentially final demand and a fundamental force for economic growth. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and government departments have implemented special initiatives to boost consumption, carried out the trade-in policy for consumer goods with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, accelerated the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, and fostered sound momentum in the consumer market. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached nearly 13 trillion yuan, rising 2.4% year on year, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage point from the fourth quarter of last year. Specifically, it shows the following three features.

First, goods consumption has remained stable and risen slightly. In the first quarter, retail sales of goods grew 2.2% year on year, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the fourth quarter of last year. Sales of basic living goods and some upgraded goods maintained sound growth momentum. In the first quarter, sales of grain, oil and food products from enterprises above designated size grew rapidly, while sales of upgraded goods such as communication equipment and cultural and office supplies also delivered healthy growth. Broadened and intensified trade-in programs continue to fuel consumption growth. In the first quarter, sales of consumer goods under the trade-in program exceeded 430 billion yuan, benefiting more than 60 million people. Green consumption is showing strong growth. In March, the penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic retail market reached 51.5%, with sales of green energy-saving products growing rapidly.

Second, service consumption has grown relatively quickly. With the implementation of the work plan to accelerate the fostering of new growth drivers in service consumption, service consumption has maintained relatively robust growth. In the first quarter, retail sales of services grew 5.5% year on year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of commodities. Holiday consumption has continued to heat up. The number of residents taking trips has risen substantially, and consumption potential in cultural tourism, sports events and other sectors has kept being unleashed. In the first quarter, retail sales of cultural, recreational and sports-related services, as well as travel consulting and rental services, saw double-digit growth.

Third, the potential of new types of consumption has been unleashed. New business formats, new models and new scenarios keep emerging, and online and digital consumption has maintained solid growth momentum. In the first quarter, online retail sales of goods and services rose by 8% year on year, notably outpacing total retail sales of consumer goods. Specifically, online retail sales of goods increased by 7.5%, accounting for 24.8% of total retail sales of consumer goods. Retail sales of new retail models such as unmanned stores and members-only warehouse stores maintained double-digit growth. Digital applications such as AI fueled relatively robust growth in digital and information service consumption. In the first quarter, retail sales of communication and information services grew by more than 10%.

At the same time, we must recognize that consumer spending capacity and willingness should be further enhanced, while the supply of high-quality goods and services has yet to fully meet diversified consumer demands. In the next stage, we need to fully act on the guiding principles from the Central Conference on Economic Work and implement the plans adopted at the sessions of the NPC and the CPPCC National Committee, focus on developing a robust domestic market, further stabilize employment and increase incomes, vigorously optimize the consumption environment, collaboratively innovate consumption models, and continuously unleash consumption potential to promote sustained, stable and healthy economic development. Thank you.