SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in July 2026

CCTV:

Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has overcome external shocks and internal difficulties, demonstrating shifts toward new growth drivers and an optimized economic structure. Based on the data just released, how do you view the overall economic performance in July? And what are the highlights and changes? Thank you.

Fu Linghui:

Thank you for your questions. In July, ongoing international geopolitical conflicts and mounting uncertainties in the global energy market weighed on global economic recovery. Domestically, extreme weather such as high temperatures and heavy downpours hit parts of China, impacting market supply and demand. Faced with the complex situation, regions and departments across the country effectively implemented more proactive macroeconomic policies, actively responded to internal and external risks and challenges, continued to deepen reform and opening up, and further advanced the development of a unified national market. Overall, China's economy has maintained a generally stable performance and continued its momentum toward innovation-driven and high-quality development, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. Specifically, the main features include:

First, the economy has maintained steady growth. A key indicator of economic growth is the sustained expansion of output. Judging from July's performance, due to short-term shocks from both international and domestic factors, the growth rates of major production indicators edged down from the previous month. However, on a cumulative basis, major production indicators remained generally stable in the period from January to July. In the first seven months, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rose by 5.3% year on year, and the Index of Services Production increased by 4.7% year on year, remaining flat compared with those for the January-June period. The trend of steady production growth remained unchanged.

Second, consumption has continued to expand. Consumption is a key component of domestic demand, and its steady expansion plays a vital role in sustaining economic growth. From January to July, total retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 2.6% year on year, remaining generally stable compared with the first half of the year. Specifically, retail sales of services increased 5%, noticeably outpacing the growth of goods sales. Retail sales of consumer goods—which consist primarily of physical goods—held largely steady with a 1.2% year-on-year growth in the January-July period. Among them, retail sales of upgraded goods maintained rapid growth, with cosmetics and communication equipment posting faster growth than the overall goods category.

Third, development vitality has continued to manifest. This is evident in three aspects: industrial upgrading, digital and intelligent transformation, and foreign trade growth. Innovation has assumed a more prominent leading role, giving a strong boost to industrial upgrading. In July, the value added of high-tech industries among industrial enterprises above designated size increased 16.9% year on year. From January to July, investment in high-tech industries rose 5%, with growth in both metrics accelerating compared with the previous month. The steady advance of digital and intelligent transformation has accelerated the growth of emerging industries. The value added of the digital and intelligent product manufacturing sector registered a robust 17.3% year-on-year growth in July. In terms of specific products, output of smart equipment such as industrial robots and robot reducers grew by more than 20%. As deeper opening-up unlocks greater market vitality, the foreign trade sector is demonstrating sound growth momentum. On the basis of mutual benefit and win-win outcomes, China has continued to expand economic and trade ties with countries worldwide. Backed by complete industrial strengths and steadily improving product quality, the total volume of goods imports and exports grew by 19.2% year on year in July, maintaining fast growth. In terms of trading partners, China's imports and exports with ASEAN and Belt and Road partner countries both maintained double-digit growth from January to July, a clear sign of vibrant economic development.

Fourth, people's livelihoods have been effectively safeguarded. Since the start of this year, in response to fluctuations in domestic and international energy markets and recent extreme weather across parts of the country, all regions and departments have boosted energy supply and the production of daily necessities, prioritized stable employment and prices, and secured positive results in safeguarding normal work and life for residents. In terms of energy supply, crude oil output from industrial enterprises above designated size rose by 0.8% year on year in July, reaching a record high for the same period. Natural gas output and power generation also remained at relatively high levels in July, effectively guaranteeing the energy needs of production and daily life. In terms of prices, the CPI saw a 0.5% year-on-year increase in July, sustaining moderate growth, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.9% and remained generally stable. Food prices, which are closely linked to people's daily lives, dropped by 1.5% year on year, while the prices of grain, meat, poultry, eggs and dairy products remained generally stable, helping ensure people's livelihoods. In terms of employment, the surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2%, unchanged from the same period last year. The surveyed unemployment rate among the working-age population aged 30 to 59 stood at 3.9%, down from the previous month. Overall, employment remained generally stable.

It must also be recognized that the international situation remains complex and severe, and the domestic imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains prominent. Preventing and defusing risks and hidden dangers, and consolidating the foundation for steady economic growth still require sustained and unremitting efforts. Moving ahead, we must fully implement the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, intensify counter-cyclical adjustments, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply. We must continue to deepen reform and opening-up, bolster development momentum, and unleash social vitality, so as to keep the economy moving toward greater innovation, quality, and dynamism. Thank you.