The latest Langrun Forecast sees China's economy growing 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 2009, with the consumer price index (CPI) falling 0.7 percent and exports down 7.7 percent.
The forecast, released on February 14 at the 16th China Economic Observer Report held by the China Center for Economic Research (CCER), is the work of 17 macro-economic research institutions.
All economic indicators are set to drop in the first quarter compared to Q4 2008; GDP growth will fall from 6.8 percent to 6.6 percent; imports will plummet by 13.6 percent; the CPI will fall 0.7 percent, and the one-year reserve requirement ratio will be cut to 2.04 percent from 2.25 percent.
Professor Lu Feng of CCER said the overall message of the forecast was that experts believe the dramatic downturn of China's economy will be contained despite the severe external economic environment, and that the government's demand-stimulus policy is taking effect.
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(China.org.cn by Fan Junmei, February 17, 2009)