China's economy will expand by 8.3 percent this year, a government think-tank said in its latest forecast report, the Shanghai Securities News reported Tuesday.

The economic growth target of 8 percent is basically achievable, as long as the global financial crisis doesn't worsen further and there is no major natural disaster in China, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in its spring forecast report.

The CASS report issued an optimistic forecast on most macro-economic indicators.

Total nominal fixed asset investment is forecast to grow by 26 percent and total retail sales are expected to grow by 14 percent.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is predicted to grow 0.8 percent. The report suggested that the government closely monitor changes in commodity prices, not only to prevent deflation but also to look out for inflationary pressures caused by domestic stimulus and any crude oil price rebound in the international market.

However, China's foreign trade outlook is still going to be grim, CASS said. According to the report, exports and imports in 2009 will drop by 2.4 percent and 3.0 percent respectively. The trade surplus will stand at about US$280 billion.

Last week, the National Statistics Bureau released key economic indicators for the first quarter in 2009. China's economic growth slowed to 6.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with a 6.8 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2008. However, the figure indicated an improving trend in quarter-on-quarter growth, which was cited by analysts as signs of economic recovery

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(China.org.cn by Yan Pei, April 21, 2009)