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2009 economy prediction
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China's economy, which was growing at a slower pace, is now picking up speed thanks to a government stimulus package. In the second quarter of this year, China's GDP grew 7.9 percent compared with the same period last year, reversing the declining trend of GDP growth for the last seven quarters.

It is predicted that China's GDP will grow about eight percent in 2009.

First, rapid growth of the industrial manufacturing section will continue. It is predicted that the industrial-added value in 2009 will grow about 8.5 percent, which is 1.5 percent higher than in the first half of the year.

Second, the investment will keep a steady, rapid growth, despite a little decline. Investment in fixed assets in towns and cities will grow about 30 percent. Investment demand will contribute the most to the economic growth.

Third, the policies to increase consumption will be strengthened and total retail sales will grow steadily. It is estimated that total retail sales will reach 12,476 billion yuan in 2009, or 15 percent higher than last year.

Fourth, the decline rate of China's exports and imports will slow down in the second half of 2009, respectively 17.5 percent and 16 percent from last year. The trade surplus in 2009 will decrease to US$220 billion.

Fifth, prices will stop declining. It is predicted that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will decrease by about 0.5 percent compared with last year, while Producer Price Index (PPI) will decrease by about 5 percent.

For more information, please consult the Chinese coverage here:


(China.org.cn by Li Xiaohua August 6, 2009)

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