Political commentators have it all wrong about the American 2020 presidential election. Pete Buttigieg is not a front-runner. Sen. Bernie Sanders is not going to divide the Democratic Party, and he's going to be a serious challenger for Donald Trump.

Start with what happened: former Vice President Joe Biden, who had been leading in the national polls, underperformed in the first two primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, and has since seen his poll numbers. Former small-town mayor Pete Buttigieg finished second.

Center-left columnists, professional political strategists, and cable news hosts all seem to think that Sanders, who calls himself a democratic socialist, is an unelectable extremist likely to bring down the Democratic Party in a general election.

For example, NBC News's Chuck Todd said, "I don't understand how Bernie is considered a front-runner." NY Mag's Jonathan Chiat wrote that "running Bernie Sanders against Trump would be an act of insanity." Rep. Tom Malinowski, a moderate Democrat from New Jersey, believes Sanders "scares" Republican cross-over voters. Buttigieg says that Sanders has a dogmatic view and will exclude "future former Republicans" from his coalition.

First, "future former Republicans" do not exist. Anyone turned off by Trump's hateful politics has already rejected him. Anyone who continues to support Trump after he ran a racist campaign in 2016, called for imprisoning his rivals, obstructed justice, abused power to try to coerce a foreign country to meddle in the 2020 election, and then covered it up, is not going to finally be convinced to change their mind just because Buttigieg tells them Trump is racist.

In fact, for the past two years, Trump's approval rating has not budged from within a range around 40%, and his disapproval rating has also remained fixed at about 53%.

Opinions about Trump are basically set in stone, and the results of the presidential election will hinge in large part on which side can motivate more supporters to vote. Bernie Sanders has a greater ability to motivate new voters than Pete Buttigieg does of motivating swing voters.

Sanders is nothing if not true to his beliefs. He will admit on stage that his single-payer healthcare plan will require raising taxes, then argue that it will decrease the total amount most families will have to spend on healthcare.

His rival for the progressive vote, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, was apprehensive about talking of how her single-payer plan would be funded and then eventually distanced herself from the whole idea.

Most people don't really care about the policy itself. They just like the idea of a candidate being honest for once.

Sanders speaks loudly and bluntly. As mayor of Burlington, Vermont in the 1980s, he would walk around town meeting and interviewing local residents on cable access TV. That showed a kind of unscripted devil-may-care attitude, unlike the pretensions of polished politicians full of polished phrases calculated to appeal to everyone.

The moderate candidates and pundits argue his agenda is too radical for most Americans to support. I have to question how much most Americans pay attention to, or care about, policy. Voters like candidates who are perceived as "authentic" – even if the authentic image is itself manufactured.

Sanders' authenticity and lack of pandering has endeared him to a new generation of young, disenchanted voters, while also winning him the admiration of some of Trump's lower-middle class white voters who perceive (not entirely accurately) their jobs as being threatened by trade rivalry, and values threatened by "political correctness." Joe Rogan, a popular podcaster who appeals to traditionalist males, supports Sanders for this very reason: "He's been insanely consistent his entire life."

With Sanders' critics, overrepresented in the media, now looking for an escape hatch, supporters of the bunch of moderate candidates are divided. Buttigieg will run into quicksand as the race leaves states that are 90% white and moves to more diverse states like Nevada and South Carolina.

He polls terribly with black voters, while Biden leads among black voters by a wide margin. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has also risen steadily to a current third place in the national polls; pragmatic voters view him as capable of both defeating Trump and governing well. Senators Warren and Amy Klobuchar are not dropping out any time soon, either.

Supporters of the moderate candidates will point to the fact that Sanders won the first two states with just 25% of the vote. (I made this mistake as a columnist in 2016, pointing out that Trump was only winning a plurality in the early states).

However, don't suppose that Sanders would be doing any worse if only the moderates weren't dividing up the vote. He actually defeats each of his rivals in one-on-one matchups, according to a poll by YouGov/Yahoo News.

Political commentators are confused by the YouGov poll, saying it doesn't make sense from an ideological analysis. Once again, political commentators are wrong. People frequently don't vote on policies and ideology. They are taken in by the passion and charisma of Sanders.

Mitchell Blatt is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/MitchellBlatt.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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