Israel expects sanctions on Iran after fruitless nuk talks
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E-mail Xinhua, June 23, 2012
The third round of nuclear talks held in Moscow between Iran and the P5+1 group - the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany - ended on Tuesday without a deal.
"From an Israeli point of view we knew that they were going to fail so we won't buy the argument that there are some signs and some maybes," Dr. Shmuel Bar, of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, told Xinhua on Thursday. "The Israeli assessment of the situation is going to have to take into account that the diplomatic route isn't going anywhere," he added.
Prof. Gerald Steinberg, of Bar-Ilan University, said that he too believed that the current round of negotiations have ended and the hopes that there would be a quick agreement with Iran failed. "Israel will stay in the backseat as long as sanctions are still seen as having a possibility of preventing Iran from passing the red line," he added.
Steinberg said that the expectations from Iran of a quick European collapse were misplaced and the sanctions will now go into place on the oil purchases from Europe.
The European Union is set to impose sanction banning its member states from buying oil from Iran; the export of oil is the single largest source of income for the Iranian government.
The U.S. is also working to get countries across the globe to cut their purchases of oil. However, the U.S. has been very careful not to impose its measures in a way that would cause oil prices to jump. Higher oil prices could hurt the American economy which is still in recovery from the global financial crisis.
Steinberg predicted that what will happen now is that either the Iranian government will break and accept most of the terms that were demanded by the West and there will be new inspections.
"Or we will be a buildup towards another potential military strike," Steinberg said.
Bar, on the other hand, was much more pessimistic about a major change and argued that the negotiations would continue despite the failure to reach an agreement.
From the point of view of the P5+1, Bar said that they all have an interest to pretend that the talk will go somewhere. "Obama want to drag it on until the election so that he can claim to Israel that there is some sort of process so that Israel won't take military action. The Europeans have the same interest, Russian and China also want to help Iran," Bar said.
Deputy Prime Minister and Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz, who joined the government in May, said during a trip to the U.S. that the use of military power should be the last option, and he believed that this option should be led by the U.S. and the Western countries.
He added that before considering a military option "We should ask ourselves how much will we delay the Iranian program -- how many months, how many years - and what will happen the day after in the region."
Most military experts agree that Israel lacks the capabilities to conduct an effective military strike on Iran heavily fortified nuclear infrastructure. As that type of fighter jets that the Israeli Air Force uses would need to refuel midair both going to and heading back making it a very complicated and risky mission.
Asked if Obama would be able to convince Israel not to attack, Bar said that this is the sort of thing that has to be deciding at the level of the prime minster, the minister of defense and it's a very difficult decision to make.
"But it would be very strange in my eyes if the prime minister of Israel and the defense minister of Israel were to refer Obama's electoral interests over the existential interest of Israel," Bar said.
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