To begin his address to the audience at China Exchange in London's Chinatown on July 13, 2015, Lord Patten gave the comedic quote from fallen football star Paul Gascoigne: "I never predict anything, and I never will." That is to say that it is hard to talk on the subject of balance of power in future without being seen. Of course, such predictions have been made by many others in the last few years already.

Lord Patten, last governor of Hong Kong and current chancellor of Oxford University, talks about which countries will do best in the 21th century at China Exchange in London on July 13, 2015. [Photo by Wang Zhiyong]

How China's rise will affect the world's economy and politics is no new topic to address. For many everyday readers it is clear that China's economic strength has affected American hegemony in the Asia Pacific region, and signifies a change in world powers. The topic, however, is often addressed in terms of current growth and as a matter of China or America: which will succeed in the next hundred years? But to fully assess the situation, according to Patten, we need to bring in another country that will change significantly in the coming years -- India.

Lord Patten acknowledges that China will "undoubtedly be the largest economy in the world within the next few years" and that China's rise is within the interest of all. However, with an aging population, China is likely to get old before it gets rich. On the contrary, India's population will change in the coming years and will benefit from having the world's largest working-age population.

Aside from the matter of population, the factors that will matter to China and India's growth in power will be, according to Lord Patten, the allocation of resources and the rule of law. China's centralised ability to complete projects of regional connectivity under the “Belt and Road” initiatives will be a driving force of political and economic power in Asia and across the world. These projects link continents and markets together and bring prosperity to people along the routes.

On the topic of the rule of law, President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign coupled with changes in China's legal systems to tackle bribery, establish intellectual property laws and create clearer business will help China to become a less risky place for investment, and will help businesses to succeed.

A shift of power from West to East is inevitable and is a change back to the way when China and India were global powers before Europe's population and wealth grew and overtook the countries and regions that actually dominated the world in the Colonial Era.

Patten noticed that China and India collectively produced 50 percent of the world's productive output before the 19th century, with China's output making up approximately 33% of output, and India accounting for roughly 17% of the output. These numbers went down between the 17th and 19th centuries because of the Industrial Revolution in Europe and Europe's inflated population size. As Europe's working-age population continues to shrink, a certain amount of economic, manufacturing, and political power is returning to Asia.

The return does not necessarily signify a change of global power but means more a return of balance. America, as the world’s top military budget holder, still spends on defence as much as the total amount of military spendings from the following ten countries in the global ranking list. Because of immigration, America is also the Western power that is sure to see an increase in its workforce over the next 30 years, with an estimated 100 million immigrants and second generation immigrants entering American workforce by 2050.

Lord Patten, like famous footballer Paul Gascoigne, made no predictions and never will, but from what he has said to the China Exchange, we can see that the next century is going to see a change on the political and economic stage - America has to share the limelight with India, China, and the successful stories of Asia.

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