Column: China offers resilience, not "Second China Shock"

by Zhong Guan

In late 2025, the narrative of a so-called "Second China Shock" was revived in Australian strategic circles. Notably, the Lowy Institute framed China's economic and technological progress as a "systemic threat" to global stability.

Ironically, the very same institute tells a different story in its latest Asia Power Index. It describes China and the United States as "peer competitors," praises China's "markedly enhanced resilience and policy execution capacity," and highlights China's robust resource base, complete industrial system and vast market scale as sources of global stability.

This duality exposes a typical Western dilemma: how to reconcile rising anxiety about China's capabilities with its stabilizing role in a fractured world.

Yet what is truly tearing the world apart is a confluence of crises like intensifying geopolitical tensions, the crumbling of strategic consensus in Europe, the negative impacts of unregulated artificial intelligence (AI) development, cascading climate disasters, the protracted crisis in Ukraine, and renewed turmoil in the Middle East.

In a world besieged by these converging crises, what China offers is not a "shock," but resilience, which stems from long-term strategic patience, institutional continuity and a profound grasp of developmental dynamics. In a world fraught with shocks, China's resilience is a source of certainty and a platform for shared stability.

Today, this resilience is underpinned by three pillars:

Economic resilience forged by new quality productive forces: Fostering new quality productive forces as a national priority is an important directive of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference. This strategy pivots China's economic focus toward innovation and aims to integrate AI, green technologies, advanced manufacturing and the modern industrial system.

In 2025, China's R&D spending reached 3.9 trillion yuan (approximately 560 billion U.S. dollars), with about one million invention patents granted. Crucially, this innovation prowess is translating into global public goods. Chinese electric buses run on the streets of Bangkok, solar micro-grids power rural communities in Kenya, and grid-scale battery systems provide renewable energy in Argentina. China's green tech innovation and high-quality products are actively addressing the world's urgent need for green and digital transformation.

Connectivity resilience built through institutional openness: While some countries erect walls, China is opening its doors wider and at higher standards.

China is earnestly implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and piloting negative-list management for services in free trade zones. On Dec. 18, 2025, the Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched island-wide special customs operations, a landmark move toward a globally-integrated and high-standard open economy. At a time of supply chain fragmentation in the world, China's openness offers connectivity and delivers real results.

Governance resilience advanced through inclusive cooperation: Guided by the Central Economic Work Conference's call to achieve high-level security through high-quality development, China is advancing this vision through cooperative institution-building. The global response speaks volumes: In 2025, China helped launch the United Nations (UN) "Group of Friends of Global Governance," uniting 43 states committed to more inclusive and effective multilateral institutions.

In an era where global rules are too often weaponized or disregarded, one of China's distinct contributions is its facilitation of multilateral platforms where the Global South can work together for solutions. This is the essence of governance resilience.

Together, these three pillars steady China's course and buffer the world against escalating disruptions. The so-called "Second China Shock" is thus a mirage born of strategic anxiety rather than reality.

Looking ahead, the 15th Five-Year Plan will further fortify these pillars by accelerating the green transition, strengthening social safety nets and expanding South-South cooperation. This ensures that China's stability and development will radiate outward, serving as a vital source of global confidence.

Editor's note: Zhong Guan holds a PhD in international relations and is a columnist on world affairs.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Xinhua News Agency.