SCIO briefing about effects of monetary and financial policies on high-quality development of the real economy

Financial Times:

Over the past year, the structure of monetary credit has been continuously optimized around the key areas of the five financial sectors. What are the characteristics of the total credit volume and structure in 2025? What is the financing situation in the areas of the five financial sectors? What are the expectations for credit growth in 2026? Thank you.

Zou Lan:

Thank you. I would like to invite Mr. Yan Xiandong to answer these questions.

Yan Xiandong:

Thank you for your questions. Since 2025, the PBC has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments, employed a mix of monetary policy tools, and supported the high-quality development of the real economy. In terms of results, monetary and credit performance in 2025 was characterized by "aggregate growth and structural optimization."

And the credit aggregate maintained steady growth. At the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of RMB loans from financial institutions was 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; if the impact of local government special bond swaps on loans is taken into account, the growth rate would be around 7%. New RMB loans totaled 16.27 trillion yuan for the year, indicating that the financial system maintained a high level of credit support for the real economy. Structurally, we can observe the following characteristics.

In terms of borrowers, loans to enterprises and public institutions constitutes the main driver of credit growth. In 2025, loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 15.47 trillion yuan, of which medium- and long-term loans increased by 8.82 trillion yuan, forming the principal component of the increase in loans to enterprises and institutions. This demonstrates that the financial system continues to provide stable funding sources for the real economy. Household loans increased by 441.7 billion yuan, and business loans increased by 938 billion yuan, reflecting the continued efforts of financial institutions to strengthen support for the production and operational activities of self-employed individuals and owners of small and micro enterprises.

In terms of sectors, the loan industry structure continues to be optimized. By the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of medium- and long-term loans to the manufacturing sector increased by 6.6% year-on-year, that to the infrastructure sector increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and the outstanding balance of medium- and long-term loans to the service sector (excluding real estate) increased by 9.4% year-on-year.

In the five major areas of finance, the "1+5" policy framework has been refined, incentives and constraints have been strengthened, and the system of structural monetary policy tools has been optimized, achieving full coverage across all areas of the five key areas of finance.

First, the total amount has grown rapidly. At the end of November 2025, the loan balance for the five major areas of the finance was 107.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year. There is overlap among the subcategories of the five major areas of finance, for instance, an overlap of 16.5 trillion yuan between technology loans and green loans, and an overlap of 7.5 trillion yuan between technology loans and digital economy industry loans. The loan balance of the five major areas of the finance I am reporting here is an aggregated balance that excludes overlaps among subcategories, thereby accurately reflecting the effectiveness of the work on the five major areas of the finance. Among them, the technology loan balance, which is a focus of public attention, stood at 44.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year. The green loan balance amounted to 44.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 23% year-on-year. The inclusive loan balance reached 39.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. The elderly care industry loan balance totaled 216.2 billion yuan, and the digital economy industry loan balance was 8.5 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.2% and 14.6% respectively, both exceeding the growth rate of all loans.

Second, financing costs have declined noticeably. In November 2025, the interest rate for newly issued loans under the five major areas of the finance was 0.42 percentage point lower than the same period last year, among which the interest rate for newly issued technology loans was 2.81%, 0.32 percentage point lower than the same period last year, and the interest rate for newly issued digital economy industry loans was 2.7%, 0.51 percentage point lower than the same period last year.

Third, financing availability has further increased. By the end of November 2025, a total of 82.55 million enterprises and individuals had been served, an increase of 5.47 million from the same period last year.

In addition, bond and bill financing in the five major areas of finance has grown steadily. This is calculated quarterly. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the balance of bonds under the five major areas was 6.7 trillion yuan, up 20.4% from the end of the previous year. The balance of bills under the five major areas, including acceptance bills and discounted bills, was 10.9 trillion yuan, up 7.2% from the end of the previous year.

In 2026, the PBC will continue to thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on advancing the goal of building a nation with a strong financial sector. We will deploy various monetary policy tools, enhance the financial market system and mechanisms, and channel financial resources more precisely and efficiently to key areas and weaker links in the economy.

That is all from me. Thank you.

Zhou Jianshe:

Due to time constraints, we'll take two final questions.