How the meaning of geography decides the fates of nations
- By Li Shen
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 19, 2014
How would you characterize the differences between the West and the East?
M: It's a very interesting topic for historians to look at, what people have thought about these differences. If you pick up books written in the U.S. or in Europe 60 or 70 years ago, you will regularly read that East Asia – China, Japan and Korea – have great civilizations, but they would never be able to compete with the West, because of the old Confucian system. [Western historians] thought that Confucianism was a backward idea that prevented people from being able to focus on the real problems of the world, such as industrialization, and the East would never ever catch up with the West. But if you look at books on Japan written by Americans 20 or 30 years ago, the reason that Japan caught up with the U.S. was because of Confucianism, and Confucianism is a great value system that made the Japanese concentrate on the real problems of the world. We can learn a lesson from this: that value systems and cultural traditions do not make that much difference. I think cultural traditions are very flexible. People are able to adapt their systems of thought to make them work well in the world in which they live. Cultural differences are secondary things. Geography drives the world along and makes people make big decisions.
In his book "When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order," Martin Jacques predicts that China will lead the world as the West did before, but in a Chinese pattern. Do you agree with him?
M: I read that book when it first came out. It's a really interesting book. I think he is right about lots of things he said in that book, except for one thing. He imagines the future as being pretty much the same as the present. China will be richer and more powerful as well as play a big part in the world. I think that is a little bit too simple. The role of China is not the only thing that has changed in the world. In particular, he does not pay enough attention to the way that technology is changing the meaning of geography. At the end of my book, "Why the West Rules for Now," I suggested that while China is catching up with the West, the world is also changing at the same time. By the late 21st century, so many things are going to be weaving together. Whether the dominant power is in the West or in the East is not going to mean very much anymore. If you look at international finance in particular, you will find different countries still have impact on what's happening, but more and more things are driven by this kind of international financial elites who move money around the world.
As a rising power, what kind of role should China play in the world?
M: In the next 20 to 30 years, China will continue its growth and development. Ever since China opened up to the world in the 1970s, it has successfully solved one problem after another. But new challenges will appear. I would say there are a couple of problems likely to come up. One will be the military strategic position. As China becomes a bigger and bigger economy, the strategic balance is going to shift. If we look back to history again, every time this happened, it has led to wars. That would be a disaster for the world. So preventing the shift in strategic balance from leading to war will be the responsibility of both China and the U.S. So it's going to require a lot of really good leadership from both sides to keep things calm and keep things peaceful. Another challenge is China's social and political arrangements within the country. In the last 200 years, on the whole, the more a country has moved towards democracy and openness, the more successful it has been in the global order. It seems to me that China has moved towards democracy and openness pretty slowly. It might cause some economic problems. On the other hand, if it moves too quickly, it might destabilize things and cause other problems. So how China manages to do this is a big challenge. Anti-corruption is another thing that should be addressed. In 18th century England, corruption was one of the biggest problems the country had, but they did a remarkable job to make institutions transparent. Cracking down on corruption is a huge task. But I am impressed with what the Hong Kong government has done on fighting graft. Back in the British time, it was pretty corrupt in Hong Kong. So this can be done, but it's very difficult and painful.
In your opinion, are we in imminent danger due to climate change getting worse, terrorists spreading throughout the world and the war on energy gaining intensity?
M: I do not think that we are in imminent danger, as imminent means the next 10 years or so. I think we do face longer-term dangers, for example, the energy problem around the world and climate change. These problems are mounting. They are unlikely to lead to big crises in the short term, but if we do not do something about them, the longer we leave them, the more likely it is that there will be a big crisis in the next 20 to 30 years. The changing energy pattern of the world is a big concern. The U.S., which has been a major energy importer for so long, is now emerging as a major energy exporter. The Middle East is beginning to lose some of its importance for world energy. There is no necessary reason for this to lead to problems, but it might, as the global balance has changed so quickly.
Climate change is not going to destroy the world by itself. We've lived through very big climate changes in the past. But it does disrupt everything else. We've seen an arc from central Africa, through the Middle East, through central Asia into the western part of China where people have suffered the most from climate change recently. This is the part of the world where water supplies are most under pressure and where we've got many unstable governments and religious problems, and also where we've seen the most rapid nuclear proliferation. It is also the region where, at the moment, the most important energy resources are located. If climate change in this part starts to cause large migrations as water runs out someplace, that will lead to wars between nuclear powers, perhaps India and Pakistan, or Iran and Israel. So the more we can do now to address these problems, the lower the likelihood that these lead to disaster in future.
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