As China wins its full industrialization over the next 20 years, it will need to find new sources of the mineral resources necessary to sustain this development. According to a report from a respected Chinese scientific research institute, the total demand over the period for petroleum, natural gas, copper and aluminum will be from two to five times present reserves. Experts have advised that a national mineral resources development strategy is now essential.
A forum to address mineral resources and the sector’s sustainable development was held recently in Beijing. A report entitled “China’s Mineral Resources: Supply and Demand in the Next 20 Years” was presented by the Research Center for Strategy in Global Mineral Resources of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.
The methodology employed by the experts at the Research Center was to interrogate data spanning 100 years for long established industrialized countries such as the US and the UK and 50 years for more recently industrialized countries such as Japan and the Republic of Korea.
They analyzed these data for correlations between mineral consumption and economic development. They then modeled 20-year projections to forecast consumption of key minerals both in China and worldwide.
The projections show China with a shortfall of 6 billion tones of petroleum, 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, 3 billion tones of steel, 50 million tones of copper and 100 million tones of fine alumina. They show China at risk of running into deficiencies in sustainable supplies of some of its most important mineral resources.
A fully systematic approach via a national mineral resources development strategy would require a change in strategic approach, away from the use of individual economic targets in favor of an integrated basket of targets embracing the economy, the environment, defense and sustainable development.
China meanwhile will purchase mineral resources overseas where appropriate instead of relying on domestic supplies alone. Opportunities for the use of substitute resources will be explored.
At the same time, the focus for mineral resources should be transferred away from intense exploration and utilization. A new emphasis should be placed on conserving resources and improving utilization ratios.
The report will be further worked up in line with feedback and proposals arising at the forum. The final report is expected to become available later this year to help inform the work of government’s decision making bodies.
(china.org.cn by Feng Yikun January 7, 2003)
