Liang Wannian, vice-director of the Beijing Municipal Health Bureau, told a regular press conference in the city, "A rising trend of the epidemic has been effectively contained."

He said the outbreak will decline in the future but he could not predict when.

Beijing has witnessed sharp increases in the number of new SARS patients since April 21, around 100 per day.

"Judging from the experience of Hong Kong and Guangdong, such a 'plateau' of cases should decline after 16 to 20 days," said Liang.

Liang, also an epidemiology expert, said that the premise is that the virus that hit Beijing is the same type as that in the special administrative region and the southern province and that no other issue was involved.

It is not yet known whether there are healthy virus carriers and virus carriers in the incubation period in Beijing, nor is it known if the epidemic can be transmitted through the alimentary canal, said Liang.

He added that, as time goes by, group immunity is expected to develop among people, "thus forming an immunity shield for the vulnerable."

The official emphasized that the key factor in fighting SARS now is to cut off any sources and routes of infection and strengthen the protection of vulnerable people.

Liang said he is confident that the epidemic in Beijing will be under control in the "near future" if the measures in place are strictly enforced.

At Friday's press conference, Cai Fuchao, a member of the Standing Committee of Beijing's Communist Party of China Municipal Committee, did not give a definite answer as to whether the national university entrance examination will be postponed due to the spread of SARS.

"I believe the national education authorities will make decisions after careful and prudent research in accordance with the epidemic situation," he said.

The examination has been held in early July in previous years but was due to shift to June for the first time this year.

The Ministry of Education last month announced a postponement of the postgraduate examination for master's degrees.

Cai said 39 out of some 670,000 college students in Beijing had contracted SARS. He admitted that some students had left for their hometowns but denied there was an exodus. He said the central government had later ordered that no students should leave Beijing.

He reaffirmed that the authorities would not seal off the city. He admitted that some roads leading to neighboring provinces had been cut off by some local people but said all roads are now open to normal traffic and there are no problems with logistics supplies into the city.

He called on Beijing residents not to go to neighboring provinces or cities during the May holiday.

"This is a responsible way to protect your own health as well as the safety of neighboring provinces," Cai said.

He also said he has not been informed of any construction site that had stopped work due to a shortage of building materials.

"Since transportation into Beijing is smooth now, I guess that will not occur," he said.

Cai added, "We have advised that construction not stop as most of the sites are open. Thus the infection rate will be very low."

Various measures have been adopted on Beijing's construction sites to guarantee the health of workers, particularly migrant workers, according to Cai.

It was announced Friday that, as of the end of April, there were no confirmed SARS patients in rural Beijing.

(China Daily May 3, 2003)