The long-term global survey showed that the sex ratio at birth is quite stable, generally between 103 and 107. This figure combines with subsequent mortality figures at different ages to decide the sex ratio among the population, which then directly influences marriage patterns, family structure and the economy.

Worsening situation

The China News Agency also reported that the sex imbalance in China has been worsening over recent decades. During most of the 1960s and 1970s, the ratio remained at around 106 males per 100 females.

The proportion of boys increased after 1980: it was 108.5 in 1982 (the third national census); 110.9 in 1987 (population sample surveys showed); and 111.3 in 1990 (the fourth national census).

Population experts see three factors as primarily responsible for the rise: increasing underreporting of female births, excessive female infant mortality, and an increasing incidence of prenatal sex determination and subsequent sex-selective abortion of female foetuses.

The census also showed that Hainan and Guangdong provinces in South China have the most imbalanced sex ratios at birth, at 135.6 and 130.3 respectively. The sex ratio among the first-baby group is quite normal but it increases abruptly among the second-baby group, and it's much higher among the third-baby group according to the report.

Although sex-selective abortion is strictly forbidden by the government in China, some families seeking sons still take risks, especially in rural areas.

Science as an accomplice

Medical staff operating ultrasound B-scans are banned from revealing the baby's gender, but some of them, especially at private clinics, don't always obey the rules. "Illegal scans cost between 500-1,000 yuan (US$60-120)," said a Population and Family Planning official in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, the Shanghai I-times reported.

"But the baby's sex can only be detected with an ultrasound B-scan after five months growth in the womb, so women bear the baby for quite a long time, then decide whether to have an abortion or give birth," said a local doctor. Such abortions are very cruel to the unborn infants and harmful to women, but they are often insisted upon by the family.

The family line

Xiao Hui, 29, who lives in a middle-sized town in Jiangsu Province, finally gave birth to a boy after having three abortions in the past five years.

"I had no way to protect my baby girls because my parents-in-laws and husband want a boy to carry on their ancestral line," said the women looking much older than her age. Both she and her husband have college degrees.

If the abnormal sex ratio at birth continues to increase, Chinese males will have to fight to find a wife in the near future, with about 50 million men unable to find a partner.

"The marriage crisis will have a great impact on family structures, on the way we provide for the aged, on social ethics and the economy," said Tian Xueyuan, vice-president of the Chinese Population Association.

Males will have more difficulties finding employment and illegal phenomena such as kidnapping women could become more serious, he added.

(Shanghai Star October 30, 2002)