The State Administration of Foreign Exchange published the forecast in a report released Thursday, which blamed expected surplus reductions on changes in trade, lower tariffs and the gradual dismantling of non-tariff restrictions for the decrease.

China's increasing demand for imported goods is also behind the reason for faster growth in imports.

China recorded a small trade deficit in the first quarter of this year, according to the report.

China's deficit in service and yield accounts will continue to grow for a long period of time, the report said.

According the report on China's balance of payments in 2002, China's foreign exchange reserves will continue to grow this year.

China's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$286.4 billion by the end of 2002.

China enjoyed a US$35.4 billion surplus in its balance of payments in 2002, up 104 percent over the previous year.

(Xinhua News Agency May 23, 2003)