The African Union (AU) summit which takes place today and tomorrow could make or break plans to enlarge the 15-seat UN Security Council, which still reflects the balance of power at the end of World War II.

AU foreign ministers, meeting in Sirte, Libya, have drawn up a plan that is similar but not precisely the same as a UN resolution proposed by Germany, Brazil, Japan and India. And they are far apart on who should get the seats.

Should there be no compromise, analysts believe a reform of the council will be delayed for years to come, to the detriment of seats for Africa.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan wants a decision by the time a UN world summit takes place in September, arguing that the make-up of the council, weighted towards industrial nations, needs a wider representation.

"Ideally consensus is what one should aim for. But if that were to fail, one should be able to vote," he said.

Currently, the council has 15 members, five veto-wielding states the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China and 10 non-permanent seats, including two for sub-Saharan Africa, which rotate for two-year terms.

After a decade of debate in the 191-member UN General Assembly, Brazil, Japan, Germany and India, known as the G4 or Group of Four, have circulated a resolution calling for six additional permanent council seats, including two for Africa, and four more non-permanent seats, of which Africa would get two. Veto rights would be delayed for 15 years.

African foreign ministers agreed on the two new permanent council seats but want three new non-permanent members, one more than in the G4 proposal.

This would increase membership from 15 to 26, rather than 25 as Germany, Brazil, Japan and India have proposed.

But the AU is also split on who should get new permanent seats with South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt the main contenders. Kenya, Senegal and Libya have also voiced interest but would have less chance among the wider membership.

And Algeria is lobbying intensely for a rival plan, which has not been proposed formally, that would add 10 non-permanent seats only to the current 15-nation Security Council.

The G4 have already delayed a vote on their resolution until after the African Union summit an indication they do not have the two-thirds or 128 votes required among the 191 assembly members without most of the AU's 53 members.

To enlarge the Security Council takes three steps. The first is a vote in the General Assembly on a framework resolution, which the G4 had proposed.

A second vote would be to fill in the names of candidates. The third step is to change the UN Charter, over which national legislatures of the current five permanent council members have veto power.

(China Daily July 4, 2005)