In a subtle but substantial shift in policy, US President George W. Bush on Wednesday embraced Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan to pull out from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank, calling such a move as "historic and courageous actions."

Analysts believe that by strongly endorsing the controversial plan, Bush intended to win Sharon's consent to stay within the framework of the Middle East roadmap peace plan supported by the United States and to use Israel's proposed withdrawal from the Gaza Strip to trigger a move toward the two-state settlement Bush has called for.

When Sharon first floated the idea of disengaging Israel from the Palestinians in December last year, however, the Bush administration did not rush to embrace the proposal. It feared that Israel's unilateral move could jeopardize the stalled roadmap peace plan which calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state by 2005.

Middle East analysts say that under Sharon's plan, Israel would unilaterally draw a de facto border of its own choosing, evacuating most of the Gaza Strip while effectively annexing large chunks of the West Bank, and retreat behind the controversial security wall it is building.

Meanwhile, a peace settlement to the conflict, and the establishment of a Palestinian State will be put off indefinitely. "This situation," as Sharon told an interview recently, "could continue for many years."

Despite discouragement from the United States and objections by the Palestinians, Sharon was adamant to press ahead with his plan. This forced the Bush administration, which never has the guts to confront Israel, to begin negotiations with Israel as from February for a compromise.

As a result, a deal or understanding was reached between Israeli and US officials just days before Sharon's arrival in Washington for a White House meeting with President Bush, according to US newspapers.

The United States used to view the Jewish settlements on occupied territories as obstacles to peace and assert that final borders must be arrived at through negotiations solely between Israel and the Palestinians.

But in a letter of assurance handed to Sharon at their White House meeting, President Bush effectively recognized Israel's right to retain large blocs of Jewish settlements in the West Bank as part of any peace accord with the Palestinians.

"In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli population centers, it is unrealistic that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same conclusion," Bush said in the letter and his opening statement at his joint press conference with Sharon in the White House.

"It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities," he added.

Bush also asserted that Palestinian refugees that once lived in Israel should live in a future Palestinian state, rather than in the Israeli lands from where they were exiled.

"It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair, and realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any final status agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state and the settling of Palestinian refugees there rather than Israel," he said.

Some analysts described Bush's endorsement of Sharon's plan as a gamble, which comes with a risk.

They said that by striking a deal with Sharon, Bush would put himself in the position of shielding Sharon from international backlash while the Israeli leader proceeds with a plan that could derail the Middle East peace process.

Bush could also have the United States appear to prejudge in Israel's favor key terms of a final settlement and thus open the way for upheaval in the Palestinian territories with unpredictable results, the analysts warned.

(Xinhua News Agency April 15, 2004)