What lies behind anti-China rhetoric in Congress?
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But there is a more deep seated reason. Sometime this century, the U.S. will drop from being the largest economy in the world to being the third largest – after China and India. The shift is inevitable – dictated by economics and simple arithmetic. China and India both have four times the population of the U.S. When their per capita GDP reaches more than one quarter that of the U.S., their economies will overtake the U.S.
Anyone in the U.S. trying to prevent this is attempting the impossible. To demand the US remains the world's largest economy is to demand the average person in India or China never enjoys even a quarter of average US living standards. It requires no skill to guess the outcome if this proposition were put to the vote in China or India.
For ordinary Americans what matters is their income, not the absolute size of US GDP. In real terms, several countries, for example Norway and Singapore, already have higher per capita GDPs than the U.S. Even on the most optimistic assumptions, China won't catch up with US living standards until the second half of the century and India will get there even later. But when it happens, both China and India will have economies four times the size of the U.S., and the world will look a totally different place. Everyone, incidentally, will be a lot more prosperous than they are today.
Unfortunately, US neo-conservatives think in terms of power politics not living standards. They are determined that the U.S. will continue to have the largest economy in the world, even if this means people in China and India have their living standards restricted. Since people with such primitive political ideas have no policies to speed up US economic growth, they turn instead to thinking about how to slow down China, regardless of the consequences for the living standards of its people.
Given this interpretation, the manoeuvres in Congress make perfect sense. Tariffs against China will not create US jobs but they will do some, although fortunately not serious, damage to China. (Almost 80 percent of China's exports now go to countries other than the U.S.)
When judging policies we need to ask "cui bono" - who benefits? American workers will not benefit from tariffs against China. Neither will the Chinese population. Only US neo-cons, with their vain hopes of preventing India and China overtaking the U.S., stand to gain.
China's leaders have so far responded to the foolish Congressional attacks with wisdom, firmness and restraint. It is in the interest of everyone that they continue to do so.
The people of China and India have exactly the same right to a high standard of living as the American people – no more and no less. Moves in the US Congress are not the first, and regrettably they will not be the last, distasteful attempt to prevent them achieving it. Apply the test of "who benefits" and it becomes clear why arguments that lack all economic logic are being put forward in Congress.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7080931.htm
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