Ties face US midterm poll test
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The Republicans are likely to get 20-30 seats of the 40 to be contested, taking their lead to 55-65 seats. In the Senate, the two parties are contending for eight seats, three of which may be go to the Democrats, resulting in an equally matched house.
But predicting the midterm election result is risky. Angry Americans want to punish those who formulated the national policies, but they also understand that any other administration would have performed as badly. Of course, the policy of the current government cannot produce immediate results and the Democrats know who is responsible for the problems. The problems have worsened because of past policies of conscienceless politicians and the rich, especially some Wall Street elites.
As an American netizen has said, the enemies of American voters are the elites who ignore the people and care only about money (this is a universal truth).
From the perspective of foreign policy, the impact of the midterm election will not be felt immediately. Certainly, a "divided government" with Republicans-led Congress and Democrats-dominated White House will complicate the foreign policy formulation process, though the cost finally will be shifted to others, with China bearing the brunt as experience shows.
In the campaign for the presidential election that Obama won, the China factor was not used as strongly as it was in the past. Therefore, it should not make much sense to play up the "China factor" in the midterm election.
But given the close trade relations China has with the US and Washington's claim that an undervalued yuan is the cause of most of the US' economic woes including its huge trade deficit, American politicians were not expected to let go of the chance to use China to garner votes. For example, Democrat Senator Charles Schumer and his Republican counterpart Lindsey Graham won US nationals' praise by highlighting the yuan issue. This shows Congress members, regardless of their party affiliations, can join hands to win an election.
It is not certain what course China-US relations will take after the midterm election. China and the US disagree over many issues. The Obama administration has attached importance to the common interests of the two countries right from the day he assumed office (its position changed later). Though a number of US Congress members acknowledge the importance of common interests, not everyone thinks on the same lines. Given their different political beliefs, their views toward China are different.
Nancy Pelosi, an idealist, adopted a different attitude toward China after she was appointed speaker of the US House of Representatives. And though she may take overall responsibility for the Democrats' diplomacy and not make any irrational decisions, the opposition Republicans may "care nothing about" diplomacy.
Practice shows a "divided government" makes the US policy-making process toward China more complex. For instance, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republican representative from Florida and the ranking member in the House Foreign Affairs Committee, differs with Obama's policy toward China.
It can be foreseen that if the Republicans are in charge of the Senate or the House of Representatives, they can bargain harder with the Obama administration on its policy toward China.
The author is a professor at the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.
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