Some reflections on China's diplomacy in 2010
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2. Analysis of losses and gains for China's diplomacy in 2010
China's diplomatic year in 2010 was marked by both summit diplomacy and Expo diplomacy. Overall, there were great achievements. Based on its growing national power, China made headway on bilateral, regional and global issues. Facing a complex international situation, China managed to maintain a balance between toughness and flexibility.
In terms of successes, China basically preserved a stable relationship with the United States despite some complications. On some core issues, such as the currency and emissions reduction, it even improved relations with the United States to some extent. Although far from being resolved, there has been gradual progress on these issues as a result of successes in diplomacy and internal politics, as well as the effects of ongoing competition and cooperation.
China's relations with the major powers are moving onto a new trajectory of balanced development. In 2010, China continued to develop all-round relationships with the traditional big powers. Summit diplomacy with Russia, Great Britain, France, and others scored positive results and improved the overall landscape of China's relationships. Diplomacy conducted at the highest level with neighboring countries including India, Indonesia and Pakistan improved relations. China also strengthened high-level exchanges with North Korea to consolidate and develop the traditional partnership between the two countries.
China's diplomacy faced new challenges and unexpected events in 2010. In Northeast Asia, the deadly sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan in March and the exchange of fire between North and South Korea over maritime sovereignty disputes in November and December not only posed a threat to regional stability and China's security, but also tested China's ability to deal with crises. The real cause of the Cheonan incident may remain a mystery for a long time to come. China argued strongly that the incident should be dealt with at the UN Security Council through a presidential statement that avoided directly assigning responsibility – an apparently even-handed approach. But the failure to accept South Korea's invitation to examine evidence from its inquiry into the incident did not produce ideal results. Although accepting the invitation may not have led to a definite conclusion, the refusal displeased South Korean officials and citizens alike.
The Cheonan incident was originally a conflict between North Korea and South Korea. Its evolution into a dispute between China and the United States, although seemingly inevitable, could have been avoided. The two countries have sharp divisions of opinion on maritime rights in the Yellow Sea. But instead of addressing their concerns they have intensified their disputes. This is another aspect of China's diplomacy in 2010 that is worth reflecting on. A serious dispute also broke out over China's claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea. In the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers' meetings this July in Hanoi, the sharp exchanges between China and the U.S. gave rise to fears that such confrontations may become a regular occurrence, with competition on maritime rights intensifying.
Since China and the United States have different positions on their respective maritime rights in the South China Sea, in terms of both history and international law, it is imperative for them to strive to manage disputes and expand consensus. The two sides may not currently be able to acknowledge each other's core interests on the issue, but they should at least listen to each other's opinions and, more importantly, emphasize their will to maintain and build on common ground – which was precisely what the new positive orientation of China's diplomacy towards the end of the year aimed to achieve.
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