Pensions needed as elderly population soars
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Shanghai Daily, October 12, 2011
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[By Zhou Tao/Shanghai Daily] |
Shanghai's elderly are everywhere. Stretching in morning exercises in parks, sunning themselves on benches during the day and dancing on the sidewalks at twilight, they are just one of many constant reminders of the daunting challenge China faces in providing for its fast-aging population.
Less than a third of its elderly are covered by pension schemes today, and though programs are now being expanded to cover a wider range of pensioners, the problem is likely to get worse before it gets better.
China is now reaching a "tipping point" - as a percentage of the total population, China's workforce has peaked while the number of elderly is soaring, says Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Institute at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC.
This is mainly due to the family planning policy, which combined with rising affluence has accelerated a sharp decline in fertility. "The fertility decline was extremely steep, from five children per women on average in the early 1970s to two by the late 1980s and now 1.6," he adds.
While the surge in the elderly population is an issue confronting all industrial societies, China faces a much bigger challenge than many. Its average income and level of social and economic development are much lower than, for example, Japan or South Korea. "The challenge for China is bigger because it has not yet had time to put in place full pension protections of a modern welfare state," asserts Jackson.
As the Chinese population ages rapidly, the government faces the daunting task of expanding pension programs for not only for urban workers but also farmers and the urban unemployed. All this leaves a looming collision of demography and policy that's likely to compound concerns about social stability and economic growth in the country, say a range of experts.
The country's remarkably strong economic growth over the past three decades has brought China's population of some 1.3 billion unprecedented prospects of affluence and longevity.
Longer life expectancy thanks to improved living standards and health care means that nearly a third of the population, or 438 million Chinese, is expected to be over the age of 60 by the end of 2050, predicts the United Nations, compared with a world average of about 22 percent and is more than double the 178 million over-60s in China in 2010.
Last year, there were 7.8 working adults (aged between 15 and 59) for every elderly person in China. But the United Nations predicts that the ratio will fall so that by 2050, there will be 2.4 working adults for every elderly person.
Meanwhile, the gap in living standards between the wealthy coastal cities and the poorer rural areas is widening.
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