The market reaction to "bearish euro" is stirring resonance. The information of Asian foreign exchange market on Dec. 19 showed that the euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate still remained at a low level.

The ratings agency Moody's said on Dec. 16 that France was more likely exposed to a debt crisis than other euro zone countries with the highest rating, triggering another upswing of market risk aversion. Euro may continue to decline and exert a negative influence on Asia’s manufacturing.

Unfavorable Asian exports to Europe

Asia’s exports to Europe have faced an unfavorable situation since the beginning of this year. South Korea's exports to all of the 27 E.U. member states had declined 9 percent from January to September this year. Although China’s exports to these countries increased 6 percent in the same period, this growth was much lower than that of China’s overall exports.

Professor Xing Yuqing from the Research Institute under Asian Development Bank said that the continuous decline of euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate would have a great impact on Asia’s export-oriented economy.

The four member countries of ASEAN, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, are downstream manufacturers of multinational companies in Japan and South Korea. As the four countries’ exports to Europe are impacted, Japan and South Korea's exports will also be affected. East Asia’s exports to Europe will have a much dimmer prospect in 2012.

Emerging markets need to explore trade space mutually

Experts interviewed all believe that as the economic downturn in Europe and United States cannot be changed in a short term, and Asian countries need to make some long-term adjustments to strengthen trade links within the region, for example, strengthening trade links between ASEAN members and between China and Northeast Asia, in order to better stabilize Asian economy.

Xing Yuqing said boosting domestic demand should be a long-term orientation for Asian countries. They should also strive to explore India, Russia and other emerging markets. The Eighth WTO Ministerial Conference officially approved Russia to join the WTO on Dec. 16. This is a new market and new opportunity for Asian countries.

Gu Qingyang also believes that America may move faster than Europe in economic recovery. In view of this, Southeast Asia can expand export scope, export semi-finished products and intermediate products to the United States, and participate in the US’s high-end manufacturing development.

Song Hong said that China's exports to emerging market countries had been accelerating in recent years, and this rapid growth had made up for the depression of China’s exports to European and American countries to some extent. In export trade in the future, China shall gradually swift its target to emerging markets, countries and regions and upgrade and update export products.

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