East Asia embattled
- By Tian Yifeng
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E-mail China.org.cn, August 30, 2012
"Tangled relations" accurately illustrates the current situation in East Asia.
The complexities of the strategic wrestling between China and the United States, constant confrontation on both sides of the Korean Peninsula, endless emerging crises in the East and South China Sea, subtle changes in Sino-Japan, Sino-South Korea and Sino-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) relations as well as an intensifying regional arms race haunt the region, while observers ask: "what, exactly, is going wrong?"
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One third of U.S. aircraft carriers are cruising on the sea of East Asia. [milchina.com] |
Others may offer differing perspectives, but for me, the territorial disputes that have been going on for generations in the East and South China Seas remain the front lines of a battle over resources.
One one hand, the surging demand for natural resources is due to the rapid and peaceful development of East Asia over the past three decades. Disputes over sea resources have exploded as countries vie for economic advantage in an increasingly competitive world.
Additionally, the United States 'return to Asia' has disrupted the regional equilibrium. Whether intentional or not, a number of the countries in the region rely on the superpower's influence to impose constraints on China. Uncle Sam is far from being "impartial" and "neutral" in these disputes ― its public or non-public interference consequently fans the flames even higher. With America's backing, dialogue previously used to solve relevant disputes has been abandoned in favor of threats.
If relations continue to deteriorate due to East Asian countries' blind hostilities, these territorial disputes would probably provoke one, if not several, military skirmishes. It would be a replay of wars fought in Middle East over the last few decades ― wars that were also based on historical territorial claims and access to resources [such as oil].
Also the situation in East Asia is at a critical juncture, the problems faced by the region now should be classified as "thorny" rather than "threatening" because they can still be kept under control. The situation is vastly different from the constant threat of annihilation which characterized the height of the Cold War in the 1950s to 1970s.
Objectively speaking, none of the East Asian countries except North Korea have publicly announced who their enemies are. No country, even the US, which deploys legions of aircraft and warships in the region, wants to fight a war. The best possible explanation for this is that whenever conflict erupts, the outcome usually does not turn out how either side expects.
Most East Asian countries hope to maintain peace and stability in the region, wishing to continue to reap the benefits of economic cooperation. Those in the mainstream counteract the volatilities caused by those who carry more radical views.
Of course, we should not rule out the possibility that some countries have purposely instigated and escalated these conflicts for the sake of their own strategic and economic interest.
But when faced with the possibility of armed conflict, those countries would undoubtedly weigh the pros and cons of costly wars which would be a severe blow to regional stability, long-term prosperity and the interests of all countries.
The troubles East Asia confronts today will not lead to armed conflict, as long as the parties can identify the key elements causing problems and enact proper controls to stabilize the regional situation.
The author is a researcher on international and regional security.
The article is first published in Chinese and translated by Wu Jin.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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