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What's next after Obama's re-election?

By Jin Canrong: 0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, December 1, 2012

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Hard landing [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

Cuts to military spending a 'last resort'

Guancha.cn: Based on your previous analysis, will the U.S. cut its military spending?

Jin: It's possible, but it's also a last resort. The development and even existence of the U.S. is closely connected with its hegemony. Without its strong military power, the U.S. could be finished.

The U.S. needs to keep ten aircraft carriers cruising on the sea to protect its hegemony, which appears to be protecting its financial position. The country needs to feel safe by making sure that it's the one to start a war, not the one to accept a war.

Therefore, the U.S. will not cut its military spending as long as there are other options. However, from my point of view, if the U.S. is facing a very difficult fiscal situation, it may finally have to reduce its military spending.

Good polices, hard to implement

Guancha.cn: Since Obama doesn't need to worry about re-election in his second term, will he make some bold policy moves? Will he make some flexible revisions to his campaign promises and existing pathways?

Jin: Obama is a man with ambition. He wants to revive the economy and increase social justice. His policies are good; it's the execution that needs to be improved. We see a politics of polarization in the US, with the two parties arguing with each other on everything. Good policies cannot be effectively implemented, which is a pity from my point of view as a scholar.

I don't think he needs to revise any of his policies during the second term, what he need is to enhance implementation of these policies. The general direction remains economic revival and improvement of social justice.

Guancha.cn: Since Obama isn't facing any pressure on the political front, will he displease or even alienate certain interest groups in the U.S.?

Jin: From a political structure point of view, Obama is facing the same obstacles now as in his first term. The Republicans control the House, the Democrats control the Senate and he himself has the White House. Therefore, Obama is facing the same resistance and most of his proposals are still highly unlikely to pass.

Extreme measures will only lead to more polarization, which will work against him. Besides, Romney and Obama were in a very close race during the election, therefore the Republicans won't submit easily; they will be more aggressive in the future. Therefore, Obama is facing the same political resistance as before. Whether he can bridge the political divide remains to be seen.

Guancha.cn: Reviving manufacturing is a crucial aspect of Obama's policy. The U.S.'s recent development in shale gas has largely increased its energy self-efficiency rate, which has helped to revive the manufacturing sector. What impact does it have on China?

Jin: It's of great significance for the U.S. to have made a technology breakthrough in shale gas. The US energy self-efficiency rate has been increased significantly and the cost of manufacturing sector has been lowered. It gives the U.S. more autonomy in dealing with the Middle East issues. However, whether the U.S. is able to revive the manufacturing sector does not depend on this.

China has also grasped the shale gas technology and has a reserve three times the size of the U.S.'s. China isn't exploring shale gas for certain reasons. Firstly, shale gas exploration needs water, which China has a shortage of. Secondly, the ecological consequences of shale gas exploration remain to be seen. If the U.S. starts large-scale shale gas production and becomes self-efficient in energy and even has some left to export to Japan and Europe, Russian natural gas will have no other customers except for China. As a result, we would see lower energy import costs, which would be positive. In turn, The Middle East will also rely more on the Chinese market.

In the current world, it's equally important to have a market and manufacturing ability. Therefore, if the U.S. is self-efficient in energy, energy exporters such as the Middle East countries and Russia will have problem selling their energy products. China will be their only customer available. This is good news for China.

Jin Canrong is a professor and Associate Dean with the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China.

(This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Yan Pei.)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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