This year could well be called a world election year. The United States has seen the re-election of Barack Obama as president and France has undergone a leadership change. In Northeast Asia, China, Japan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, Russia and Mongolia have already seen or will soon experience leadership transitions.
The widespread expectation, therefore, is that international relations will become more harmonious after the leadership transitions. China expects a Beijing-Tokyo-Seoul cooperation mechanism will get a boost after the elections in Japan and the ROK.
Xi Jinping, China's top political leader and head of the military, has reiterated China's stand that it will never pose a threat to another country, because the country needs a peaceful, stable and friendly environment for its development. Rifts or problems are not uncommon between neighboring countries, but they have to be resolved peacefully through dialogue.
The "China threat" theory, which some countries propagate, is not only groundless but also offensive. China has always pursued (and will always pursue) a defensive defense policy, and the Chinese military will continue to strengthen strategic communication with its counterparts in other countries. But China reserves the right to respond to any provocation in kind.
Recent times have seen discordant notes around China. For example, in an interview with London-based Financial Times, Filipino Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said the Philippines would support Japan if it scraps its pacifist constitution to become a full-fledged military force to act as a counterweight against China. Such rhetoric aimed at sowing seeds of discord among Asian neighbors should be denounced. China not only does not seek hegemony, but also opposes other countries from doing so.
Sino-Japanese relations have plunged to perhaps their lowest point because the Japanese government violated China's sovereignty by "purchasing" China's Diaoyu Islands. It's high time that Japan discarded its Cold War mentality and saw China's development in the right perspective to understand the changing reality of today's world.
Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party leader, is likely to be elected the next prime minister of Japan. The thought of Abe in power in Japan has left quite a few people wondering whether Sino-Japanese ties will suffer further setbacks, because he favors amending the constitution and turning the country's Self- Defense Forces into a full-fledged army.
But many experts think otherwise. They say that, as an experienced statesman, Abe would adopt a pragmatic diplomatic policy by first strengthening the US-Japan alliance and then restoring the Sino-Japanese strategic and mutually beneficial relationship. Masahiko Komura, LDP vice-president, has said that Abe would try his best to put Sino-Japanese ties back on the right track. Other far-sighted Japanese politicians are likely to stop a future Abe government from adopting an anti-China strategy. Moreover, Japanese businesspeople will not tolerate further deterioration in Sino-Japanese economic relations.
For Japanese people, the revival of their national economy and sharing of prosperity with their Asian neighbors are more attractive propositions. In other words, the prospects of Sino-Japanese look optimistic in the long run.
Compared with Sino-Japanese ties, relations between Beijing and Seoul have been more stable, though the result of the ROK presidential election will have a major impact on inter-Korean relations and Northeast Asian dynamics. The ROK election seems to be a race between Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party (New Frontier Party) and Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party. But given the two candidates' political beliefs, we can safely say China-ROK relations will continue to advance in a steady way irrespective of who between the two wins.
Contrary to ROK President Lee Myung-bak's blatant pro-US foreign policy, Park and Moon both have underlined a "balanced" diplomacy. As far as the possibility of a China-US standoff in Northeast Asia is concerned, despite their disagreements, the two countries have a common interest in upholding the fundamental interests of the ROK and avoiding a conflict. Also, Seoul is likely to take a neutral stance in a possible China-US conflict, which is beneficial to the healthy development of China-ROK relations.
The result of the ROK election will have little impact on the US-ROK alliance, though.
Disputes over islands between China and Japan, and the ROK and Japan are not insurmountable problems. They are, however, diplomatic tests for the new leaderships of the three countries, which are expected to judge the situation rightly and place their faith in peaceful negotiations.
During the next five years, China, Japan and the ROK will embark on new strategic cooperation and there is reason for the new leaderships to be confident and optimistic about advancing the trilateral cooperation mechanism.
We cannot choose our neighbors but we can work with them to create a better neighborhood. Adopting good-neighborly policies is the common aspiration of wise leaders and making enemies out of neighbors is bad diplomacy that can never enjoy popular support.
As long as China unswervingly implements the diplomatic guidelines given by the 18th Party Congress, its relations with neighboring countries will improve and the prospects of China, Japan and the ROK joining hands to create a better Asia will come true.
The author is director of Border Area Research Institute, affiliated to the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences.
Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)