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Since the second half of 2012, the maritime territorial dispute over the Diaoyu Islands involving China and Japan has continued to drag on.

Japanese vessels fire water cannons to deter Taiwan ships off the Diaoyu Islands. The Taiwan fishing vessel, named "Happy Family" in English, departed from a fishing port in New Taiwan City on Jan.24 under the protection of ships from Taiwan's coast guard. [Photo/Sina.com]

Ties were strained after both sides deployed patrol ships in the waters surrounding the islands. Media and netizens on both sides have continuously discussed whether tensions over the Diaoyu Islands could escalate into military conflict.

Geographically, a military conflict over the Diaoyu Islands would be impossible, because the waters surrounding Islands lie in direct firing range from both sides. If a conflict erupted, the scale and speed of destruction would be unimaginable and uncontrollable.

Many people think that Washington doesn't expect a direct military conflict between China and Japan, because the U.S. is unwilling to be forced to get involved in such a dispute. However, this idea seems to be over-optimistic and naïve.

For America, if a military conflict happens over the Diaoyu Islands, it just needs to see that it will not become involved in the conflicts too directly. Moreover, no matter who wins between China and Japan, the US emerges as a certain winner.

If China were to win the conflict, Japan would strengthen its alliance with the U.S., which plays favorably for Washington. If Japan wins, China would internally face a period of unrest, which would indirectly help the U.S. to contain China's rise.

Not only does the U.S. but also other countries fail to see any reason to use their own resources to intervene in any possible conflicts between China and Japan.

China has always made its intentions clear that it doesn't expect any escalation of tension with Japan. China hopes the Japanese government will respect history and understand the current situation clearly. Therefore, it will be the Japanese side that determines whether or not military conflict occurs.

Japan's authorities should have a clear understanding of the future of Sino-Japanese ties. If Japan can recognize the importance of the bilateral relations, military conflict is unlikely to occur.

Relative military strength also is a factor that will likely determine decision-making in Japan. From this perspective, the amount of military spending China has put into the Diaoyu Islands to some extent prevents any potential military conflict with Japan.

The author is a Beijing-based military commentator.

This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Ma Yujia.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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