Rebalancing act

By Zheng Yongnian
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, June 7, 2013
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America's engagement in TPP negotiations is part of a wider strategy to maintain influence in the ASEAN region and ensure that China's development is kept under close scrutiny. [file photo]

America's engagement in TPP negotiations is part of a wider strategy to maintain influence in the ASEAN region and ensure that China's development is kept under close scrutiny. [file photo]

Times have been changing recently, as far as Chinese and American attitudes to the "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) are concerned. China has warmed towards the TPP and is now open to the prospect of joining the TPP negotiations. For its part, the United States has expressed support for China's entry into the TPP negotiations under certain conditions.

It is likely that any agreement between China and the U.S. on TPP will take some considerable time in the event that China joins the negotiating process. Despite this, the definite attitude shifts are of great importance to both the Sino-U.S. relationship and the world economy.

The intention of the TPP is to forge a high-level agreement which tackles emerging trade issues in the 21st century. The initial goal of the TPP in its early stage was to build a trans-Pacific trade group without the United States. Once America becomes a full TPP member, the TPP will be seen as a pivotal part of America's "rebalancing to Asia" policy, which is clearly aimed at China.

The United States has engaged in Asia almost continuously since the end of World War II. This has changed somewhat in recent years, however, with the rise of the Chinese and other Asian economies. Since China's reform and opening-up, economic and trade relations between China and the ASEAN countries have developed rapidly, especially after the establishment of the China-ASEAN free trade zone. The result of this is that China currently has the upper hand in the struggle for influence in the ASEAN region; however the increasingly close relationship between China and the ASEAN countries did not happen in order to contain America or any other country. America itself, not China or any other factor, is to blame for its dwindling economic clout in the ASEAN bloc.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, U.S. has been the only global superpower in the world, with unquestioned economic and military strength. Despite this unrivalled position, America squandered its opportunities and made serious strategic mistakes. In order to sell its notion of democracy and freedom to every corner of the world, America launched a series of wars, including the Gulf War in 1991. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, America began to shift its emphasis to global-scale anti-terrorist wars.

To a large extent, America's strategic shifts provided a great opportunity for China. In the face of a relatively peaceful international environment, China has been focusing on economic reform and development. In a short space of time, China has transformed itself from a capital-deficit country to a capital-surplus country and Asia, especially the ASEAN countries, has been a priority area of investment for China.

After the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, America and the wider Western world were generally pessimistic about Asia's economic future. Fast forward just one decade and Asia is now a global economic center in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. China has expanded to overtake Japan and become the world's second largest economy. India is also rising and several other ASEAN nations are growing rapidly too. All of the evidence points to the fact that Asia will remain one of the world's economic hubs for a long time to come, and this is why the United States is shifting its strategic emphasis to Asia.

America's "rebalance to Asia" strategy can be interpreted in both a military and economic sense. From the military perspective, it seems clear that America is seeking to "contain" China's influence. With Japan and Australia as America's allies and India a quasi-ally, no other countries except China in this region are strong enough to challenge or pose any danger to America. From an economic perspective, America intends to use the high standards of TPP, especially certain detailed provisions, to restrain China's economic penetration.

The author is a professor at the National University of Singapore and director of the university's East Asian Institute.

The article was first published in Chinese and translated by Liu Qiang.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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