Obama's successor as U.S. president in 2017 is likely to be the first one since World War II that does not govern the world's most powerful economy. And there is another big, negative milestone ahead for the United States as India's economy is projected by both Standard Chartered and the OECD to become larger than the U.S. economy by 2050. Additionally, the World Bank predicts that the U.S. dollar will lose its dominance by 2025 as the dollar, euro, and the renminbi become equals in a "multi-currency" global monetary system. Finally, just to throw a bit more gasoline onto the fire, Nobel economist Robert Fogel, writing in Foreign Policy a few years ago, observed that "by 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, nearly three times the economic output of the entire planet in 2000 … creating a situation where the average Chinese urban dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman while China transitions from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040." By 2040, China will comprise 40 percent of the world's GDP. Conversely, America's percentage of world GDP will shrink to 14 percent. One can only imagine the American reaction to that prospect.

American reaction to the prospect of becoming number two should not be one of surprise. Nearly 20 years ago, a book entitled China's Grand Strategy: A Blueprint for World Leadership, edited by Cai Xianwei, explained how and why China would become the leading power in the world by the third decade of the 21st century. It theorized that the basis of China's rise would be its rapid economic growth and embrace of a socialist market economy. Furthermore, a quick perusal of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15), as well as a 2010 State Council policy document entitled The Decision on Accelerating the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries and a 2011 plan by the National Development and Reform Commission, all elaborate in a quite simple manner how China would pursue the next stage of economic development and growth through the promotion of alternative energy, biotechnology, new-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, advanced materials, alternative-fuel cars, and new energy technologies.

So has China already become the world's leading economic power, unseating the United States? It depends on who you ask. According to a Pew Research Center survey, the answer is yes, based on international perceptions. That said, China's rise should be understood within the context of her distinctive history. China is getting richer, and the Chinese economy will surpass the United States relatively soon, but the relative affluence of the United States is one reason why China will not become the world's most powerful country on the day that it becomes the largest economy. That day may be coming, but it will probably not be by 2020. Perhaps the United States may finally recognize that China's rise to the number one economy is all part of the transition to a new model for relations between powers, encouraging mutual respect and benefit, seeking cooperation and deepening integration of interests.

When China finally surpasses the United States, it may very well foster Sputnik-like moment for the United States, spurring it to engage in renewed economic initiatives and innovation efforts. Or, conversely, it could create a deep political crisis, eliciting feverish debates and searching for scapegoats to blame for losing America's primacy in the world. Quite frankly, this does not have to be a crisis moment for the United States if it can recognize that the world has shifted from a Eurocentric, Atlantic Ocean-centered world to an Asiancentric, Indo-Pacific Ocean-centered world. Despite the so-called "pivot to Asia" by the U.S Government, America is generally unprepared for the shift to an Asian century led by China and other nations. How the United States handles the shift to number two is of critical importance to future Sino-U.S. relations and world stability.

The author is chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of St. Thomas in Houston and a professor of political science.

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