Will the progress in Iran nuclear issue sustainable?
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 21, 2013
Though the possibility of a breakthrough cannot be excluded, it is even more likely that the Iran nuclear bargain will finally turn out to be a half-baked product. On the one hand, the executive branches of the United States and Iran are eager to improve relations by solving the nuclear disputes. But on the other hand, the obstacles are also obvious, especially on the U.S. side. That is whether the United States will be able to implement the deals signed and potential deals.
It will be less difficult for Iran to implement the interim deal since all the requirements for Iran are technical. That is to say, the executive branch of the government can do it with an order whether it is freezing the installation of new centrifuges, diluting half the stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium or accepting intrusive inspections of some sensitive sites.
By comparison, the United States will have more difficulty in implementing it since its requirements in the agreement are not technical. Barack Obama and John Kerry will have to persuade the congress to hold off additional sanctions. Despite difficulties, this is likely to happen. The President can also veto the new bill passed by the congress. Analysts believe, otherwise, the United States will lose international credit. But it is ironical that it is the executive branch that has announced new name list of sanctions in the last week.
But the real problem is whether the United States can remove the sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors if the parties reach a comprehensive agreement. It seems that Iran will be ready for real substantial concessions, due to its economic and diplomatic difficulty and the deal is highly likely. Can the U.S. congress remove the sanctions with voting?
Iran is one of the two countries, toward which the U.S. policy is severely emotional. The other one is Cuba. The UN General Assembly passed resolutions in the last 22 consecutive years demanding the United States to remove the sanctions, which have lasted more than half a century. But it seems that the United States will not do that until the Castro brothers step down or pass away.
Iran will not be better off than Cuba. The hostage crisis is still looming in the minds of ordinary Americans. Not to say that Jewish lobbies are actively pushing for tough actions on Iran.
Nevertheless, Barack Obama, free from election pressure, will certainly try to find middle ground for the sanctions. Observers believe that the president might suspend the sanctions for 120 days when needed, and another 120 days after that. But is that the solution? And can Iranian hardliners be satisfied?
Last but not least, though Iran is in the dilemma, that is concession without being adequately rewarded, yet it does not mean that Iran has no gains. By the negotiation and the deal, Iran actually made the United States in a difficult situation as the United States is facing challenges from its Middle East Arab and Israeli allies. Iran has also improved relations with its neighbors and EU countries. The U.K. in particular is exploring the possibility of renewing its diplomatic relations with Iran.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm
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